Dataset Information

Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 testing behaviour: a modelling study using nationwide testing data in England.

ABSTRACT: During the COVID-19 pandemic, national testing programmes were conducted worldwide on unprecedented scales. While testing behaviour is generally recognised as dynamic and complex, current literature demonstrating and quantifying such relationships is scarce, despite its importance for infectious disease surveillance and control. Here, we characterise the impacts of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, disease susceptibility/severity, risk perception, and public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing behaviour in England over 20 months of the pandemic, by linking testing trends to underlying epidemic trends and contextual meta-data within a systematic conceptual framework. The best-fitting model describing SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing behaviour explained close to 80% of the total deviance in NHS test data. Testing behaviour showed complex associations with factors reflecting transmission level, disease susceptibility/severity (e.g. age, dominant variant, and vaccination), public health measures (e.g. testing strategies and lockdown), and associated changes in risk perception, varying throughout the pandemic and differing between infected and non-infected people.

SUBMITTER: Kim Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10103662 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 testing behaviour: a modelling study using nationwide testing data in England.

Kim Younjung Y Donnelly Christl A CA Nouvellet Pierre P

Nature communications 20230414 1

During the COVID-19 pandemic, national testing programmes were conducted worldwide on unprecedented scales. While testing behaviour is generally recognised as dynamic and complex, current literature demonstrating and quantifying such relationships is scarce, despite its importance for infectious disease surveillance and control. Here, we characterise the impacts of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, disease susceptibility/severity, risk perception, and public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing beha ...[more]

PMID: 37059861

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Project description:BackgroundPredicting the likely size of future SARS-CoV-2 waves is necessary for public health planning. In England, voluntary "plan B" mitigation measures were introduced in December 2021 including increased home working and face coverings in shops but stopped short of restrictions on social contacts. The impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on future SARS-CoV-2 burden is unknown.MethodsWe developed a rapid online survey of risk mitigation behaviours ahead of the winter 2021 festive period and deployed in two longitudinal cohort studies in the UK (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and TwinsUK/COVID Symptom Study (CSS) Biobank) in December 2021. Using an individual-based, probabilistic model of COVID-19 transmission between social contacts with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant parameters and realistic vaccine coverage in England, we predicted the potential impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave in England in terms of the effective reproduction number and cumulative infections, hospital admissions and deaths. Using survey results, we estimated in real-time the impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on the Omicron wave in England, if implemented for the entire epidemic wave.ResultsOver 95% of survey respondents (NALSPAC = 2686 and NTwins = 6155) reported some risk mitigation behaviours, with vaccination and using home testing kits reported most frequently. Less than half of those respondents reported that their behaviour was due to "plan B". We estimate that without risk mitigation behaviours, the Omicron variant is consistent with an effective reproduction number between 2.5 and 3.5. Due to the reduced vaccine effectiveness against infection with the Omicron variant, our modelled estimates suggest that between 55% and 60% of the English population could be infected during the current wave, translating into between 12,000 and 46,000 cumulative deaths, depending on assumptions about severity and vaccine effectiveness. The actual number of deaths was 15,208 (26 November 2021-1 March 2022). We estimate that voluntary risk reduction measures could reduce the effective reproduction number to between 1.8 and 2.2 and reduce the cumulative number of deaths by up to 24%.ConclusionsPredicting future infection burden is affected by uncertainty in disease severity and vaccine effectiveness estimates. In addition to biological uncertainty, we show that voluntary measures substantially reduce the projected impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant but that voluntary measures alone would be unlikely to completely control transmission.

Dataset Information

Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 testing behaviour: a modelling study using nationwide testing data in England.

Publications

Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 testing behaviour: a modelling study using nationwide testing data in England.

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