Dataset Information

External validation of the ACC/AHA ASCVD risk score in a Colombian population cohort.

ABSTRACT: No cardiovascular risk score has included Latin American patients in its development. The ACC/AHA ASCVD risk score has not been validated in Latin America; consequently, its predictive capacity in the population of the region is unknown. The aim of this study is to evaluate the discrimination capacity and calibration of the ACC/AHA ASCVD score to predict the 10-year risk of a cardiovascular event in a primary prevention cohort followed in a Colombian hospital. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in primary prevention patients belonging to an intermediate/high-risk and low-risk cohort without established atherosclerotic disease. Cardiovascular risk was calculated at inclusion. The calibration was analyzed by comparing observed and expected events in the different risk categories. A discrimination analysis was made using the area under the ROC curve and C statistic. A total of 918 patients were included-202 from the intermediate/high-risk and 716 from the low-risk cohort. The median cardiovascular risk was 3.6% (IQR 1.7-8.5%). At the 10-year follow-up, 40 events (4,4%) occurred. The area under the ROC curve was 0.782 (95% CI 0.71-0.85). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test did not show differences between expected and observed events. The ACC/AHA ASCVD score is calibrated and has good discrimination capacity in predicting 10-year risk of cardiovascular events in a Colombian population.

SUBMITTER: Rodriguez-Ariza CD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10105759 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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External validation of the ACC/AHA ASCVD risk score in a Colombian population cohort.

Rodríguez-Ariza Carlos Daniel CD Cabrera-Villamizar Alfredo A Rodríguez-Pulido Astrid Lorena AL Callegari Santiago S Ossa Rodríguez Natalia Alejandra NA Pinilla-Roncancio Mónica M Moreno López Sergio Mauricio SM Sánchez-Vallejo Carlos Andrés CA

Scientific reports 20230415 1

No cardiovascular risk score has included Latin American patients in its development. The ACC/AHA ASCVD risk score has not been validated in Latin America; consequently, its predictive capacity in the population of the region is unknown. The aim of this study is to evaluate the discrimination capacity and calibration of the ACC/AHA ASCVD score to predict the 10-year risk of a cardiovascular event in a primary prevention cohort followed in a Colombian hospital. A retrospective cohort study was co ...[more]

PMID: 37061603

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Project description:BackgroundPrediction of lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is recommended in many clinical guidelines, but lifetime risk models are rarely externally validated. The aim of this study was to externally validate the QRiskLifetime incident CVD risk prediction tool.MethodsIndependent external validation of QRiskLifetime using Clinical Practice Research Datalink data, examining discrimination and calibration in the whole population and stratified by age, and reclassification compared to QRISK3. Since lifetime CVD risk is unobservable, performance was evaluated at 10-years' follow-up, and lifetime performance inferred in terms of performance for in the different age-groups from which lifetime predictions are derived.ResultsOne million, two hundreds sixty thousand and three hundreds twenty nine women and 1,223,265 men were included in the analysis. Discrimination was excellent in the whole population (Harrell's-C = 0.844 in women, 0.808 in men), but moderate to poor stratified by age-group (Harrell's C in people aged 30-44 0.714 for both men and women, in people aged 75-84 0.578 in women and 0.556 in men). Ten-year CVD risk was under-predicted in the whole population, and in all age-groups except women aged 45-64, with worse under-prediction in older age-groups. Compared to those at highest QRISK3 estimated 10-year risk, those with highest lifetime risk were younger (mean age: women 50.5 vs. 71.3 years; men 46.3 vs. 63.8 years) and had lower systolic blood pressure and prevalence of treated hypertension, but had more family history of premature CVD, and were more commonly minority ethnic. Over 10-years, the estimated number needed to treat (NNT) with a statin to prevent one CVD event in people with QRISK3 ≥ 10% was 34 in women and 37 in men, compared to 99 and 100 for those at highest lifetime risk.ConclusionsQRiskLifetime underpredicts 10-year CVD risk in nearly all age-groups, so is likely to also underpredict lifetime risk. Treatment based on lifetime risk has considerably lower medium-term benefit than treatment based on 10-year risk.

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Dataset Information

External validation of the ACC/AHA ASCVD risk score in a Colombian population cohort.

Publications

External validation of the ACC/AHA ASCVD risk score in a Colombian population cohort.

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