Real-time prediction model of cVDPV2 outbreaks to aid outbreak response vaccination strategies.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks are spreading more widely than anticipated, which has generated a crisis for the global polio eradication initiative. Effectively responding with vaccination activities requires a rapid risk assessment. This assessment is made difficult by the low case-to-infection ratio of type 2 poliovirus, variable transmissibility, changing population immunity, surveillance delays, and limited vaccine supply from the global stockpile. The geographical extent of responses have been highly variable between countries.

Methods

We develop a statistical spatio-temporal model of short-term, district-level poliovirus spread that incorporates known risk factors, including historical wild poliovirus transmission risk, routine immunization

SUBMITTER: Voorman A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10109086 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature