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Heuristic responses to pandemic uncertainty: Practicable communication strategies of "reasoned transparency" to aid public reception of changing science.

ABSTRACT: Scientific uncertainty during pandemic outbreaks poses a challenge for health communicators. Debates continue over the extent to which health officials should be transparent about uncertainty and the extent to which they should suppress uncertainty and risk losing the public's trust when information changes. The middle ground, the concept of "reasoned transparency," proposes that communicators focus on interpreting uncertainty to the public in ways informed by risk research. However, little guidance exists for health officials on how to do so in this context. After conducting a series of one-to-one interviews about people's coronavirus disease 2019 information habits, we identified significant trends in the heuristics that people depended on to process uncertainty. Based on those trends, we propose health communicators use narratives of science as evolving to set expectations for change, and that when changes do occur, health communicators note divergences from the past and avoid simply replacing old information with new information.

SUBMITTER: Hodson J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10115932 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Heuristic responses to pandemic uncertainty: Practicable communication strategies of "reasoned transparency" to aid public reception of changing science.

Hodson Jaigris J Reid Darren D Veletsianos George G Houlden Shandell S Thompson Christiani C

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) 20221201 4

Scientific uncertainty during pandemic outbreaks poses a challenge for health communicators. Debates continue over the extent to which health officials should be transparent about uncertainty and the extent to which they should suppress uncertainty and risk losing the public's trust when information changes. The middle ground, the concept of "reasoned transparency," proposes that communicators focus on interpreting uncertainty to the public in ways informed by risk research. However, little guid ...[more]

PMID: 36453133

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Project description:Applicability of the EFSA Scientific Committee revised draft Guidance on uncertainty in EFSA scientific assessment is tested in the context of an EFSA Reasoned Opinion on the modification of pesticide maximum residue levels (MRLs). EFSA purchased services for the preparation of a non-regulatory Evaluation Report with example non-standard uncertainties related to a fictitious application for the modification of MRLs. The Evaluation Report was assessed by EFSA in the format of a Reasoned Opinion and case-specific examples of non-standard uncertainty in the acute and chronic dietary risk assessments were analysed. Methods were selected from the general framework outlined in the Scientific Committee draft Guidance in order to apply a relatively simple strategy that could be considered for use in a regulatory context. The individual non-standard uncertainties were assessed by sensitivity analysis with iterative back-calculation of the parameter values that would lead to exceedance of the toxicological reference value (exceedance limit calculation), and quantified by subjective probability estimation. Non-standard uncertainties affecting the chronic risk assessment were quantified by subjective upper bound probability percentile estimation and the combined estimated non-standard uncertainty calculated by probability bounds analysis. Probability bounds analysis provides a relatively simple approach for calculating the probability related to a combination of uncertainties. The draft Guidance was found to provide a comprehensive range of methods for uncertainty analysis. However, process-specific guidelines and practical procedures may need to be developed in order to implement the uncertainty assessment framework in routine pesticide risk assessments. The uncertainty assessment is intended to provide additional information on how certain the conclusions of the risk assessment are and thereby support the risk-based decision-making process by enabling risk managers to take account of uncertainty. The outcome of the pilot study will inform the EFSA Scientific Committee Working Group on how to further tailor the draft Guidance on uncertainty for the needs of the EFSA panels and units.

Dataset Information

Heuristic responses to pandemic uncertainty: Practicable communication strategies of "reasoned transparency" to aid public reception of changing science.

Publications

Heuristic responses to pandemic uncertainty: Practicable communication strategies of "reasoned transparency" to aid public reception of changing science.

Similar Datasets

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