Modeling Lake Recovery Lag Times Following Influent Phosphorus Loading Reduction.

ABSTRACT: Internal feedback of nutrients may impede timely improvement in lake water quality. We describe a parsimonious, mechanistic framework for modeling lag times to recovery of phosphorus-enriched lakes, given decreases in external loading. The approach assumes first-order kinetics in a two-compartment system taking account of phosphorus storage in and loading from benthic sediments. Bayesian parameter modeling, published sediment phosphorus release rates, and a prior dynamic calibration for one lake are used to derive estimates of key parameters. Applications are developed for an example lake, as are maps displaying estimated times to attainment of a phosphorus criterion in lakes across a midwestern state, and lag time estimates for fractional water column concentration decrease averaged over

SUBMITTER: Carleton JN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10116841 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature