Dataset Information

Expanding Ethanol Production in the United States: The Roles of Policy, Price, and Demand.

ABSTRACT: Assessments of the impact of the U.S. renewable fuel standard (RFS) should inform consideration of future biofuels policy. Conventional wisdom suggests the RFS played a major role in stimulating the ten-fold expansion in ethanol production and consumption in the United States from 2002 to 2019, but evidence increasingly suggests the RFS might have had a smaller effect than previously assumed. Price competitiveness, federal and state policies such as reformulated gasoline requirements, and octane content in ethanol also affect ethanol market attractiveness. This study explores the roles of policy and economic factors by comparing historical data with results from scenarios simulated in a system dynamics model. Results suggest price competitiveness explains much of the growth in the ethanol industry from 2002 to 2019. The Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit and phaseout of the oxygenate methyl tert-butyl ether contributed to earlier growth relative to expected timing of growth based on fuel price alone. The RFS (modeled through observed Renewable Identification Numbers [RINs]) contributed to increased ethanol production in later years and may have increased production in the earlier years if risk of investment was decreased.

SUBMITTER: Newes E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10116853 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Expanding Ethanol Production in the United States: The Roles of Policy, Price, and Demand.

Newes Emily E Clark Christopher C Vimmerstedt Laura L Peterson Steve S Burkholder Dallas D Korotney David D Inman Daniel D

Energy policy 20211101

Assessments of the impact of the U.S. renewable fuel standard (RFS) should inform consideration of future biofuels policy. Conventional wisdom suggests the RFS played a major role in stimulating the ten-fold expansion in ethanol production and consumption in the United States from 2002 to 2019, but evidence increasingly suggests the RFS might have had a smaller effect than previously assumed. Price competitiveness, federal and state policies such as reformulated gasoline requirements, and octane ...[more]

PMID: 37091191

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the system for producing yellow corn grain is well established in the US, its role among other biofeedstock alternatives to petroleum-based energy sources has to be balanced with its predominant purpose for food and feed as well as economics, land use, and environmental stewardship. We model land usage attributed to corn ethanol production in the US to evaluate the effects of anticipated technological change in corn grain production, ethanol processing, and livestock feeding through a multi-disciplinary approach. Seven scenarios are evaluated: four considering the impact of technological advances on corn grain production, two focused on improved efficiencies in ethanol processing, and one reflecting greater use of ethanol co-products (that is, distillers dried grains with solubles) in diets for dairy cattle, pigs, and poultry. For each scenario, land area attributed to corn ethanol production is estimated for three time horizons: 2011 (current), the time period at which the 15 billion gallon cap for corn ethanol as per the Renewable Fuel Standard is achieved, and 2026 (15 years out).ResultsAlthough 40.5% of corn grain was channeled to ethanol processing in 2011, only 25% of US corn acreage was attributable to ethanol when accounting for feed co-product utilization. By 2026, land area attributed to corn ethanol production is reduced to 11% to 19% depending on the corn grain yield level associated with the four corn production scenarios, considering oil replacement associated with the soybean meal substituted in livestock diets with distillers dried grains with solubles. Efficiencies in ethanol processing, although producing more ethanol per bushel of processed corn, result in less co-products and therefore less offset of corn acreage. Shifting the use of distillers dried grains with solubles in feed to dairy cattle, pigs, and poultry substantially reduces land area attributed to corn ethanol production. However, because distillers dried grains with solubles substitutes at a higher rate for soybean meal, oil replacement requirements intensify and positively feedback to elevate estimates of land usage.ConclusionsAccounting for anticipated technological changes in the corn ethanol system is important for understanding the associated land base ascribed, and may aid in calibrating parameters for land use models in biofuel life-cycle analyses.

Project description:BackgroundIncreasing health care expenditure in the United States has put policy makers under enormous pressure to find ways to curtail costs. Starting January 1, 2021, hospitals operating in the United States were mandated to publish transparent, accessible pricing information online about the items and services in a consumer-friendly format within comprehensive machine-readable files on their websites.ObjectiveThe aims of this study are to analyze the available files on hospitals' websites, answering the question-is price transparency (PT) information as provided usable for patients or for machines?-and to provide a solution.MethodsWe analyzed 39 main hospitals in Florida that have published machine-readable files on their website, including commercial carriers. We created an Excel (Microsoft) file that included those 39 hospitals along with the 4 most popular services-Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) 45380, 29827, and 70553 and Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) 807-for the 4 most popular commercial carriers (Health Maintenance Organization [HMO] or Preferred Provider Organization [PPO] plans)-Aetna, Florida Blue, Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare. We conducted an A/B test using 67 MTurkers (randomly selected from US residents), investigating the level of awareness about PT legislation and the usability of available files. We also suggested format standardization, such as master field names using schema integration, to make machine-readable files consistent and usable for machines.ResultsThe poor usability and inconsistent formats of the current PT information yielded no evidence of its usefulness for patients or its quality for machines. This indicates that the information does not meet the requirements for being consumer-friendly or machine readable as mandated by legislation. Based on the responses to the first part of the experiment (PT awareness), it was evident that participants need to be made aware of the PT legislation. However, they believe it is important to know the service price before receiving it. Based on the responses to the second part of the experiment (human usability of PT information), the average number of correct responses was not equal between the 2 groups, that is, the treatment group (mean 1.23, SD 1.30) found more correct answers than the control group (mean 2.76, SD 0.58; t65=6.46; P<.001; d=1.52).ConclusionsConsistent machine-readable files across all health systems facilitate the development of tools for estimating customer out-of-pocket costs, aligning with the PT rule's main objective-providing patients with valuable information and reducing health care expenditures.

Dataset Information

Expanding Ethanol Production in the United States: The Roles of Policy, Price, and Demand.

Publications

Expanding Ethanol Production in the United States: The Roles of Policy, Price, and Demand.

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