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Climate resilience and risks of rigidity traps in Iceland's fisheries.

ABSTRACT: Iceland's fisheries system is well-governed, data-rich, and has adapted to past ecological change. It thus provides an opportunity to identify social-ecological attributes of climate resilience and interactions among them. We elicited barriers and enabling conditions for adaptation in Iceland's fisheries from semi-structured expert interviews, using projections of fish habitat shifts by mid-century to guide discussion. Interviewees highlighted flexible management, highly connected institutions that facilitate learning, ample assets to expand adaptive options, and cultural comfort with change. However, examining how these attributes interact in reinforcing feedback loops revealed potential rigidity traps, where optimization for resilience to stock shifts may render the system more vulnerable to extreme environmental change and social backlash. This study articulates resilience attributes that Iceland and other fisheries systems might prioritize as the climate changes. It further explores circumstances in which these same attributes risk forming traps, and potential pathways to escape them.

SUBMITTER: Mason JG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10117241 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate resilience and risks of rigidity traps in Iceland's fisheries.

Mason Julia G JG Stedman Richard C RC Kleisner Kristin M KM

Ambio 20230420 8

Iceland's fisheries system is well-governed, data-rich, and has adapted to past ecological change. It thus provides an opportunity to identify social-ecological attributes of climate resilience and interactions among them. We elicited barriers and enabling conditions for adaptation in Iceland's fisheries from semi-structured expert interviews, using projections of fish habitat shifts by mid-century to guide discussion. Interviewees highlighted flexible management, highly connected institutions t ...[more]

PMID: 37079206

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Project description:Climate change is driving shifts in the abundance and distribution of marine fish and invertebrates and is having direct and indirect impacts on seafood catches and fishing communities, exacerbating the already negative effects of unsustainably high fishing pressure that exist for some stocks. Although the majority of fisheries in the world are managed at the national or local scale, most existing approaches to assessing climate impacts on fisheries have been developed on a global scale. It is often difficult to translate from the global to regional and local settings because of limited relevant data. To address the need for fisheries management entities to identify those fisheries with the greatest potential for climate change impacts, we present an approach for estimating expected climate change-driven impacts on the productivity and spatial range of fisheries at the regional scale in a data-poor context. We use a set of representative Mexican fisheries as test cases. To assess the implications of climate impacts, we compare biomass, harvest, and profit outcomes from a bioeconomic model under contrasting management policies and with and without climate change. Overall results show that climate change is estimated to negatively affect nearly every fishery in our study. However, the results indicate that overfishing is a greater threat than climate change for these fisheries, hence fixing current management challenges has a greater upside than the projected future costs of moderate levels of climate change. Additionally, this study provides meaningful first approximations of potential effects of both climate change and management reform in Mexican fisheries. Using the climate impact estimations and model outputs, we identify high priority stocks, fleets, and regions for policy reform in Mexico in the face of climate change. This approach can be applied in other data-poor circumstances to focus future research and policy reform efforts on stocks now subject to additional stress due to climate change. Considering their growing relevance as a critical source of protein and micronutrients to nourish our growing population, it is urgent for regions to develop sound fishery management policies in the short-term as they are the most important intervention to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on marine fisheries.

Dataset Information

Climate resilience and risks of rigidity traps in Iceland's fisheries.

Publications

Climate resilience and risks of rigidity traps in Iceland's fisheries.

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