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Explaining refugee flows. Understanding the 2015 European refugee crisis through a real options lens.


ABSTRACT: In 2015 the unprecedented arrival of refugees in Europe posed serious challenges for the EU and its member countries on how to deal with such an influx. A key element in better managing refugee flows is to understand what drives these flows in a certain direction. A refugee who comes to Europe has to make trade-offs in terms of cost and benefits, duration, uncertainty and the multi-staged character of the journey. Real options models are a suitable tool for modelling these kind of decision dynamics. On the basis of a case-study, that compares three routes from Syria to Europe, we demonstrate how well the real options analysis is in line with the development of the refugee flows.

SUBMITTER: Peters L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10118136 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Explaining refugee flows. Understanding the 2015 European refugee crisis through a real options lens.

Peters Linda L   Engelen Peter-Jan PJ   Cassimon Danny D  

PloS one 20230420 4


In 2015 the unprecedented arrival of refugees in Europe posed serious challenges for the EU and its member countries on how to deal with such an influx. A key element in better managing refugee flows is to understand what drives these flows in a certain direction. A refugee who comes to Europe has to make trade-offs in terms of cost and benefits, duration, uncertainty and the multi-staged character of the journey. Real options models are a suitable tool for modelling these kind of decision dynam  ...[more]

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