The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM): Estimating cases, admissions and deaths for the first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa.

ABSTRACT: In March 2020 the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium was formed to support government planning for COVID-19 cases and related healthcare. Models were developed jointly by local disease modelling groups to estimate cases, resource needs and deaths due to COVID-19. The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM) while initially developed as a deterministic compartmental model of SARS-Cov-2 transmission in the nine provinces of South Africa, was adapted several times over the course of the first wave of infection in response to emerging local data and changing needs of government. By the end of the first wave, the NCEM had developed into a stochastic, spatially-explicit compartmental transmission model to estimate the total and reported incidence of COVID-19 across the 52 districts of South A

SUBMITTER: Silal SP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10124849 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature