Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number.

ABSTRACT: For vector-borne diseases the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], a measure of a disease's epidemic potential, is highly temperature-dependent. Recent work characterizing these temperature dependencies has highlighted how climate change may impact geographic disease spread. We extend this prior work by examining how newly emerging diseases, like Zika, will be impacted by specific future climate change scenarios in four diverse regions of Brazil, a country that has been profoundly impacted by Zika. We estimated a [Formula: see text], derived from a compartmental transmission model, characterizing Zika (and, for comparison, dengue) transmission potential as a function of temperature-dependent biological parameters specific to Aedes aegypti. We obtained historical temperature data

SUBMITTER: Van Wyk H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10138270 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature