Dataset Information

First Steps towards a near Real-Time Modelling System of Vibrio vulnificus in the Baltic Sea.

ABSTRACT: Over the last two decades, Vibrio vulnificus infections have emerged as an increasingly serious public health threat along the German Baltic coast. To manage related risks, near real-time (NRT) modelling of V. vulnificus quantities has often been proposed. Such models require spatially explicit input data, for example, from remote sensing or numerical model products. We tested if data from a hydrodynamic, a meteorological, and a biogeochemical model are suitable as input for an NRT model system by coupling it with field samples and assessing the models' ability to capture known ecological parameters of V. vulnificus. We also identify the most important predictors for V. vulnificus in the Baltic Sea by leveraging the St. Nicolas House Analysis. Using a 27-year time series of sea surface temperature, we have investigated trends of V. vulnificus season length, which pinpoint hotspots mainly in the east of our study region. Our results underline the importance of water temperature and salinity on V. vulnificus abundance but also highlight the potential of air temperature, oxygen, and precipitation to serve as predictors in a statistical model, albeit their relationship with V. vulnificus may not be causal. The evaluated models cannot be used in an NRT model system due to data availability constraints, but promising alternatives are presented. The results provide a valuable basis for a future NRT model for V. vulnificus in the Baltic Sea.

SUBMITTER: Schutt EM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10138452 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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First Steps towards a near Real-Time Modelling System of Vibrio vulnificus in the Baltic Sea.

Schütt Eike M EM Hundsdörfer Marie A J MAJ von Hoyningen-Huene Avril J E AJE Lange Xaver X Koschmider Agnes A Oppelt Natascha N

International journal of environmental research and public health 20230417 8

Over the last two decades, Vibrio vulnificus infections have emerged as an increasingly serious public health threat along the German Baltic coast. To manage related risks, near real-time (NRT) modelling of V. vulnificus quantities has often been proposed. Such models require spatially explicit input data, for example, from remote sensing or numerical model products. We tested if data from a hydrodynamic, a meteorological, and a biogeochemical model are suitable as input for an NRT ...[more]

PMID: 37107825

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Project description:The number of Vibrio-related infections in humans, e.g., by Vibrio vulnificus, has increased along the coasts of the Baltic Sea. Due to climate change, vibriosis risk is expected to increase. It is, therefore, pertinent to design a strategy for mitigation of the vibriosis threat in the Baltic Sea area, but a prerequisite is to identify the environmental conditions promoting the occurrence of pathogenic Vibrio spp., like V. vulnificus. To address this, we sampled three coastal Baltic sites in Finland, Germany, and Denmark with salinities between 6 and 21 from May to October 2022. The absolute and relative abundances of Vibrio spp. and V. vulnificus in water were compared to environmental conditions, including the presence of the eelgrass Zostera marina, which has been suggested to reduce pathogenic Vibrio species abundance. In the water column, V. vulnificus only occurred at the German station between July and August at salinity 8.1-11.2. Temperature and phosphate (PO43-) were identified as the most influencing factors for Vibrio spp. and V. vulnificus. The accumulation of Vibrio spp. in the sediment and the co-occurrence with sediment bacteria in the water column indicate that sediment resuspension contributed to V. vulnificus abundance. Interestingly, V. vulnificus co-occurred with specific cyanobacteria taxa, as well as specific bacteria associated with cyanobacteria. Although we found no reduction in Vibrio spp. or V. vulnificus associated with eelgrass beds, our study underscores the importance of extended heatwaves and sediment resuspension, which may elevate the availability of PO43-, for Vibrio species levels at intermediate salinities in the Baltic Sea.ImportanceElevated sea surface temperatures are increasing the prevalence of pathogenic Vibrio at higher latitudes. The recent increase in Vibrio-related wound infections and deaths along the Baltic coasts is, therefore, of serious health concern. We used culture-independent data generated from three Baltic coastal sites in Denmark, Germany, and Finland from May to October (2022), with a special focus on Vibrio vulnificus, and combined it with environmental data. Our temporal model shows that temperature, combined with sediment resuspension, drives the prevalence of V. vulnificus at intermediate salinities in the coastal Baltic Sea.

Dataset Information

First Steps towards a near Real-Time Modelling System of Vibrio vulnificus in the Baltic Sea.

Publications

First Steps towards a near Real-Time Modelling System of <i>Vibrio vulnificus</i> in the Baltic Sea.

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