Assessing the accuracy of California county level COVID-19 hospitalization forecasts to inform public policy decision making.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the role of infectious disease forecasting in informing public policy. However, significant barriers remain for effectively linking infectious disease forecasts to public health decision making, including a lack of model validation. Forecasting model performance and accuracy should be evaluated retrospectively to understand under which conditions models were reliable and could be improved in the future.

Methods

Using archived forecasts from the California Department of Public Health's California COVID Assessment Tool ( https://calcat.covid19.ca.gov/cacovidmodels/ ), we compared how well different forecasting models predicted COVID-19 hospitalization census across California counties and regions during periods of Alpha, Delta,

SUBMITTER: White LA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10141909 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature