Validity of prognostic models of critical COVID-19 is variable. A systematic review with external validation.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To identify prognostic models that estimate the risk of critical COVID-19 in hospitalised patients and to assess their validation properties.

Study design and setting

We conducted a systematic review in Medline (up to January 2021) of studies developing or updating a model that estimated the risk of critical COVID-19, defined as death, admission to intensive care unit (ICU), and/or use of mechanical ventilation during admission. Models were validated in two datasets with different backgrounds (HM [private Spanish hospital network], n=1,753, and ICS [public Catalan health system], n=1,104); by assessing discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration (plots).

Results

We validated 18 prognostic models. Discrimination was good in 9 of them (AUCs≥80%

SUBMITTER: Cardenas-Fuentes G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10152752 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature