Design of effective outpatient sentinel surveillance for COVID-19 decision-making: a modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Decision-makers impose COVID-19 mitigations based on public health indicators such as reported cases, which are sensitive to fluctuations in supply and demand for diagnostic testing, and hospital admissions, which lag infections by up to two weeks. Imposing mitigations too early has unnecessary economic costs while imposing too late leads to uncontrolled epidemics with unnecessary cases and deaths. Sentinel surveillance of recently-symptomatic individuals in outpatient testing sites may overcome biases and lags in conventional indicators, but the minimal outpatient sentinel surveillance system needed for reliable trend estimation remains unknown.

Methods

We used a stochastic, compartmental transmission model to evaluate the performance of various surveillance indi

SUBMITTER: Toh KB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10158704 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature