Progression of a large syphilis outbreak in rural North Carolina through space and time: Application of a Bayesian Maximum Entropy graphical user interface.

ABSTRACT: In 2001, the primary and secondary syphilis incidence rate in rural Columbus County, North Carolina was the highest in the nation. To understand the development of syphilis outbreaks in rural areas, we developed and used the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Graphical User Interface (BMEGUI) to map syphilis incidence rates from 1999-2004 in seven adjacent counties in North Carolina. Using BMEGUI, incidence rate maps were constructed for two aggregation scales (ZIP code and census tract) with two approaches (Poisson and simple kriging). The BME maps revealed the outbreak was initially localized in Robeson County and possibly connected to more urban endemic cases in adjacent Cumberland County. The outbreak spread to rural Columbus County in a leapfrog pattern with the subsequent development of a visi

SUBMITTER: Fox LC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10159108 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature