Estimating time-dependent contact: a multi-strain epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 on the island of Ireland.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical modelling plays a key role in understanding and predicting the epidemiological dynamics of infectious diseases. We construct a flexible discrete-time model that incorporates multiple viral strains with different transmissibilities to estimate the changing patterns of human contact that generates new infections. Using a Bayesian approach, we fit the model to longitudinal data on hospitalisation with COVID-19 from the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland during the first year of the pandemic. We describe the estimated change in human contact in the context of government-mandated non-pharmaceutical interventions in the two jurisdictions on the island of Ireland. We take advantage of the fitted model to conduct counterfactual analyses exploring the impact of lockdown timing an

SUBMITTER: Kamiya T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10159265 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature