Dataset Information

Multi-Cause Calibration of Verbal Autopsy-Based Cause-Specific Mortality Estimates of Children and Neonates in Mozambique.

ABSTRACT: The Countrywide Mortality Surveillance for Action platform is collecting verbal autopsy (VA) records from a nationally representative sample in Mozambique. These records are used to estimate the national and subnational cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for children (1-59 months) and neonates (1-28 days). Cross-tabulation of VA-based cause-of-death (COD) determination against that from the minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention project revealed important misclassification errors for all the VA algorithms, which if not accounted for will lead to bias in the estimates of CSMF from VA. A recently proposed Bayesian VA-calibration method is used that accounts for this misclassification bias and produces calibrated estimates of CSMF. Both the VA-COD and the MITS-COD can be multi-cause (i.e., suggest more than one probable COD for some of the records). To fully use this probabilistic COD data, we use the multi-cause VA calibration. Two different computer-coded VA algorithms are considered-InSilicoVA and EAVA-and the final CSMF estimates are obtained using an ensemble calibration that uses data from both the algorithms. The calibrated estimates consistently offer a better fit to the data and reveal important changes in the CSMF for both children and neonates in Mozambique after accounting for VA misclassification bias.

SUBMITTER: Gilbert B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10160855 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Multi-Cause Calibration of Verbal Autopsy-Based Cause-Specific Mortality Estimates of Children and Neonates in Mozambique.

Gilbert Brian B Fiksel Jacob J Wilson Emily E Kalter Henry H Kante Almamy A Akum Aveika A Blau Dianna D Bassat Quique Q Macicame Ivalda I Samo Gudo Eduardo E Black Robert R Zeger Scott S Amouzou Agbessi A Datta Abhirup A

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 20230410 5_Suppl

The Countrywide Mortality Surveillance for Action platform is collecting verbal autopsy (VA) records from a nationally representative sample in Mozambique. These records are used to estimate the national and subnational cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for children (1-59 months) and neonates (1-28 days). Cross-tabulation of VA-based cause-of-death (COD) determination against that from the minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention project r ...[more]

PMID: 37037430

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Project description:BackgroundNigeria has one of the highest under-five mortality rates in the world. Identifying the causes of these deaths is crucial to inform changes in policy documents, design and implementation of appropriate interventions to reduce these deaths. This study aimed to provide national and zonal-level estimates of the causes of under-five death in Nigeria in the 2013-2018 periods.MethodsWe conducted retrospective inquiries into the cause of deaths of 948 neonates and 2,127 children aged 1-59 months as identified in the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). The verbal autopsy asked about signs and symptoms during the final illness. The Physician Coded Verbal Autopsy (PCVA) and Expert Algorithm Verbal Autopsy (EAVA) methods were employed to assign the immediate and underlying cause of deaths to all cases.ResultFor the analysis, sampling weights were applied to accommodate non-proportional allocation. Boys accounted for 56 percent of neonatal deaths and 51.5 percent of the 1-59-months old deaths. About one-quarter of under-5 mortality was attributed to neonatal deaths, and 50 percent of these neonatal deaths were recorded within 48 h of delivery. Overall, 84 percent of the under-5 deaths were in the northern geopolitical zones. Based on the two methods for case analysis, neonatal infections (sepsis, pneumonia, and meningitis) were responsible for 44 percent of the neonatal deaths, followed by intrapartum injury (PCVA: 21 percent vs. EAVA: 29 percent). The three main causes of death in children aged 1-59 months were malaria (PCVA: 23 percent vs. EAVA: 35 percent), diarrhoea (PCVA: 17 percent vs. EAVA: 23 percent), and pneumonia (PCVA: 10 percent vs. EAVA: 12 percent). In the North West, where the majority of under-5 (1-59 months) deaths were recorded, diarrhoea was the main cause of death (PCVA: 24.3 percent vs. EAVA: 30 percent).ConclusionThe causes of neonatal and children aged 1-59 months deaths vary across the northern and southern regions. By homing on the specific causes of mortality by region, the study provides crucial information that may be useful in planning appropriately tailored interventions to significantly reduce under-five deaths in Nigeria.

Project description:BackgroundThis study was one of a set of verbal autopsy investigations undertaken by the WHO/UNCEF-supported Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) to derive direct estimates of the causes of neonatal and child deaths in high priority countries of sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of the study was to determine the cause distributions of neonatal (0-27 days) and child (1-59 months) mortality in Niger.MethodsVerbal autopsy interviews were conducted of random samples of 453 neonatal deaths and 620 child deaths from 2007 to 2010 identified by the 2011 Niger National Mortality Survey. The cause of each death was assigned using two methods: computerized expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy and physician completion of a death certificate for each child. The findings of the two methods were compared to each other, and plausibility checks were conducted to assess which is the preferred method. Comparison of some direct measures from this study with CHERG modeled cause of death estimates are discussed.FindingsThe cause distributions of neonatal deaths as determined by expert algorithms and the physician were similar, with the same top three causes by both methods and all but two other causes within one rank of each other. Although child causes of death differed more, the reasons often could be discerned by analyzing algorithmic criteria alongside the physician's application of required minimal diagnostic criteria. Including all algorithmic (primary and co-morbid) and physician (direct, underlying and contributing) diagnoses in the comparison minimized the differences, with kappa coefficients greater than 0.40 for five of 11 neonatal diagnoses and nine of 13 child diagnoses. By algorithmic diagnosis, early onset neonatal infection was significantly associated (χ(2) = 13.2, P < 0.001) with maternal infection, and the geographic distribution of child meningitis deaths closely corresponded with that for meningitis surveillance cases and deaths.ConclusionsVerbal autopsy conducted in the context of a national mortality survey can provide useful estimates of the cause distributions of neonatal and child deaths. While the current study found reasonable agreement between the expert algorithm and physician analyses, it also demonstrated greater plausibility for two algorithmic diagnoses and validation work is needed to ascertain the findings. Direct, large-scale measurement of causes of death complement, can strengthen, and in some settings may be preferred over modeled estimates.

Project description:Nigeria's under-five mortality rate is the eighth highest in the world. Identifying the causes of under-five deaths is crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 by 2030 and improving child survival. National and international bodies collaborated in this study to provide the first ever direct estimates of the causes of under-five mortality in Nigeria. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted of a representative sample of 986 neonatal and 2,268 1-59 month old deaths from 2008 to 2013 identified by the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Cause of death was assigned by physician coding and computerized expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy. National and regional estimates of age distributions, mortality rates and cause proportions, and zonal- and age-specific mortality fractions and rates for leading causes of death were evaluated. More under-fives and 1-59 month olds in the South, respectively, died as neonates (N = 24.1%, S = 32.5%, p<0.001) and at younger ages (p<0.001) than in the North. The leading causes of neonatal and 1-59 month mortality, respectively, were sepsis, birth injury/asphyxia and neonatal pneumonia, and malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. The preterm delivery (N = 1.2%, S = 3.7%, p = 0.042), pneumonia (N = 15.0%, S = 21.6%, p = 0.004) and malaria (N = 34.7%, S = 42.2%, p = 0.009) fractions were higher in the South, with pneumonia and malaria focused in the South East and South South; while the diarrhea fraction was elevated in the North (N = 24.8%, S = 13.2%, p<0.001). However, the diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria mortality rates were all higher in the North, respectively, by 222.9% (Z = -10.9, p = 0.000), 27.6% (Z = -2.3, p = 0.020) and 50.6% (Z = -5.7, p = 0.000), with the greatest excesses in older children. The findings support that there is an epidemiological transition ongoing in southern Nigeria, suggest the way forward to a similar transition in the North, and can help guide maternal, neonatal and child health programming and their regional and zonal foci within the country.

Project description:BackgroundOver 5 million stillbirths and neonatal deaths occur annually. Limited and imprecise information on the cause of these deaths hampers progress in achieving global health targets. Complete diagnostic autopsies (CDAs)-the gold standard for cause of death determination-are difficult to perform in most high-burden settings. Therefore, validation of simpler and more feasible methods is needed.Methods and findingsIn this observational study, the validity of a minimally invasive autopsy (MIA) method in determining the cause of death was assessed in 18 stillbirths and 41 neonatal deaths by comparing the results of the MIA with those of the CDA. Concordance between the categories of diseases obtained by the 2 methods was assessed by the Kappa statistic, and the sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values of the MIA diagnoses were calculated. A cause of death was identified in 16/18 (89%) and 15/18 (83%) stillborn babies in the CDA and the MIA, respectively. Fetal growth restriction accounted for 39%, infectious diseases for 22%, intrapartum hypoxia for 17%, and intrauterine hypoxia for 11% of stillborn babies. Overall, the MIA showed in this group a substantial concordance with the CDA (Kappa = 0.78, 95% CI [0.56-0.99]). A cause of death was identified in all (100%) and 35/41 (85%) neonatal deaths in the CDA and the MIA, respectively. In this group, the majority of deaths were due to infectious diseases (66%). The overall concordance of the MIA with the CDA in neonates was moderate (Kappa = 0.40, 95% CI [0.18-0.63]). A high percentage of accuracy was observed for the MIA in all the diagnostic categories in both stillbirths and neonates (>75%). The main limitation of this study is that some degree of subjective interpretation is inherent to cause-of-death attribution in both the MIA and the CDA; this is especially so in stillbirths and in relation to fetal growth restriction.ConclusionsThe MIA could be a useful tool for cause-of-death determination in stillbirths and neonatal deaths. These findings may help to accelerate progress towards meeting global health targets by obtaining more accurate information on the causes of death in these age groups, which is essential in guiding the design of new interventions and increasing the effectiveness of those already implemented.

Project description:BackgroundThe present study aimed to examine the risk factors for death due to pneumonia in young children and healthcare behaviors of the guardians for children in rural Bangladesh. A prospective autopsy study was conducted among guardians of children aged 4 weeks to 59 months in Mirzapur, Bangladesh, from 2008 to 2012.ResultsPneumonia was the primary cause of death, accounting for 26.4% (n = 81) of all 307 deaths. Of the pneumonia deaths, 58% (n = 47) deaths occurred in younger infants (aged 4 weeks to < 6 months) and 24.7% (n = 20) in older infants (aged 6-11 months). The median duration of illness before pneumonia death was 8 days (interquartile range [IQR] 3-20 days). Prior to death, 91.4% (n = 74) children with pneumonia sought treatment, and of those who sought treatment, 52.7% (n = 39) sought treatment ≥ 2 days after the onset of disease. Younger infants of 4 weeks to < 6 months old were at 5.5-time (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5, 12.0) and older infants aged 6-11 months were at 3-time (1.2, 7.5) greater risk of dying from pneumonia than older children aged 12-59 months. Children with a prolonged duration of illness (2-10 days) prior to death were at more risk for death by pneumonia than those who died from other causes (5.8 [2.1, 16.1]). Children who died from pneumonia sought treatment 3.4-time more than children who died from other causes. Delayed treatment seeking (≥ 2 days) behavior was 4.9-time more common in children who died from pneumonia than those who died from other causes. Children who died from pneumonia more often had access to care from multiple sources (5.7-time) than children who died from other causes.ConclusionsDelay in seeking appropriate care and access to multiple sources for treatment are the underlying risk factors for pneumonia death in young children in Bangladesh. These results indicate the perplexity in guardians' decisions to secure appropriate treatment for children with pneumonia. Therefore, it further underscores the importance of focusing on mass media coverage that can outline the benefits of seeking care early in the progression of pneumonia and the potential negative consequences of seeking care late.

Dataset Information

Multi-Cause Calibration of Verbal Autopsy-Based Cause-Specific Mortality Estimates of Children and Neonates in Mozambique.

Publications

Multi-Cause Calibration of Verbal Autopsy-Based Cause-Specific Mortality Estimates of Children and Neonates in Mozambique.

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