Forecasting ICU Census by Combining Time Series and Survival Models.

ABSTRACT: Capacity planning of ICUs is essential for effective management of health safety, quality of patient care, and the allocation of ICU resources. Whereas ICU length of stay (LOS) may be estimated using patient information such as severity of illness scoring systems, ICU census is impacted by both patient LOS and arrival patterns. We set out to develop and evaluate an ICU census forecasting algorithm using the Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS) and the Nine Equivalents of Nursing Manpower Use Score (NEMS) for capacity planning purposes.

Design

Retrospective observational study.

Setting

We developed the algorithm using data from the Medical-Surgical ICU (MSICU) at University Hospital, London, Canada and validated using data from the Critical Care Trauma Centre (CCTC) at Vict

SUBMITTER: Murray LL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10166346 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature