ATQ: alert time quality, an evaluation metric for assessing timely epidemic detection models within a school absenteeism-based surveillance system.

ABSTRACT: Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health (WDGPH) has conducted an absenteeism-based influenza surveillance program in the WDG region of Ontario, Canada since 2008, using a 10% absenteeism threshold to raise an alert for the implementation of mitigating measures. A recent study indicated that model-based alternatives, such as distributed lag seasonal logistic regression models, provided improved alerts for detecting an upcoming epidemic. However model evaluation and selection was primarily based on alert accuracy, measured by the false alert rate (FAR), and failed to optimize timeliness. Here, a new metric that simultaneously evaluates epidemic alert accuracy and timeliness is proposed. The alert time quality (ATQ) metric is investigated as a model selection criterion on both a simulated an

SUBMITTER: Vanderkruk KR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10170459 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature