Cholera past and future in Nigeria: Are the Global Task Force on Cholera Control's 2030 targets achievable?

ABSTRACT:

Background

Understanding and continually assessing the achievability of global health targets is key to reducing disease burden and mortality. The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) Roadmap aims to reduce cholera deaths by 90% and eliminate the disease in twenty countries by 2030. The Roadmap has three axes focusing on reporting, response and coordination. Here, we assess the achievability of the GTFCC targets in Nigeria and identify where the three axes could be strengthened to reach and exceed these goals.

Methodology/principal findings

Using cholera surveillance data from Nigeria, cholera incidence was calculated and used to model time-varying reproduction number (R). A best fit random forest model was identified using R as the outcome variable and several envir

SUBMITTER: Charnley GEC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10174485 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature