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High temperature, COVID-19, and mortality excess in the 2022 summer: a cohort study on data from Italian surveillances.

ABSTRACT: We aimed to assess whether the effect of high temperature on mortality differed in COVID-19 survivors and naive. We used data from the summer mortality and COVID-19 surveillances. We found 3.8 % excess risk in 2022 summer, compared to 2015-2019, while 20 % in the last fortnight of July, the period with the highest temperature. The increase in mortality rates during the second fortnight of July was higher among naïve compared to COVID-19 survivors. The time series analysis confirmed the association between temperatures and mortality in naïve people, showing an 8 % excess (95%CI 2 to 13) for a one-degree increase of Thom Discomfort Index while in COVID-19 survivors the effect was almost null with -1 % (95%CI -9 to 9). Our results suggest that the high fatality rate of COVID-19 in fragile people has decreased the proportion of susceptible people who can be affected by the extremely high temperature.

SUBMITTER: Venturelli F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10174725 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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High temperature, COVID-19, and mortality excess in the 2022 summer: a cohort study on data from Italian surveillances.

Venturelli Francesco F Mancuso Pamela P Vicentini Massimo M Ottone Marta M Storchi Cinzia C Roncaglia Francesca F Bisaccia Eufemia E Ferrarini Chiara C Pezzotti Patrizio P Giorgi Rossi Paolo P

The Science of the total environment 20230512

We aimed to assess whether the effect of high temperature on mortality differed in COVID-19 survivors and naive. We used data from the summer mortality and COVID-19 surveillances. We found 3.8 % excess risk in 2022 summer, compared to 2015-2019, while 20 % in the last fortnight of July, the period with the highest temperature. The increase in mortality rates during the second fortnight of July was higher among naïve compared to COVID-19 survivors. The time series analysis confirmed the associati ...[more]

PMID: 37178845

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Project description:BackgroundCauses of death other than COVID-19 seem to contribute significantly to the excess mortality observed during the 2020-2022 pandemic. In this study, we explore changes in non-COVID-19 causes of death in Norway during the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020 to December 2022.MethodsWe performed a population-based cross-sectional study on data from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. All recorded deaths from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2022 were included. The main outcome measures were the number of deaths and age-standardised death rate (ASMR) per 100000 population from the major cause of death groups in 2020, 2021 and 2022. The predicted number of deaths and ASMRs were forecasted with a 95% prediction interval constructed from a general linear regression model based on the corresponding number of deaths and rates from the preceding ten prepandemic years (2010-2019). We also examined whether there were deviations from expected seasonality in the pandemic period based on prepandemic monthly data from 2010-2019. The cumulative number of deaths and ASMR were estimated based on monthly mortality data.ResultsThere was significant excess mortality (number of deaths) in 2021 and 2022 for all causes (3.7% and 14.5%), for cardiovascular diseases (14.3% and 22.0%), and for malignant tumours in 2022 (3.5%). In terms of ASMR, there was excess mortality in 2021 and 2022 for all causes (2.9% and 13.7%), and for cardiovascular diseases (16.0% and 25,8%). ASMR was higher than predicted in 2022 for malignant tumours (2.3%). There were fewer deaths than predicted from respiratory diseases (except COVID-19) in 2020 and 2021, and from dementia in 2021 and 2022. From March 2020 to December 2022, there were cumulatively 3754 (ASMR 83.8) more non-COVID-19 deaths than predicted, of which 3453 (ASMR: 79.6) were excess deaths from cardiovascular disease, 509 (ASMR 4.0) from malignant tumours. Mortality was lower than predicted for respiratory diseases (-1889 (ASMR: -44.3)), and dementia (-530 (ASMR -18.5)).ConclusionsThere was considerable excess non-COVID-19 mortality in Norway from March 2020 until December 2022, mainly due to excess cardiovascular deaths. For respiratory diseases and dementia, mortality was lower than predicted.

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Dataset Information

High temperature, COVID-19, and mortality excess in the 2022 summer: a cohort study on data from Italian surveillances.

Publications

High temperature, COVID-19, and mortality excess in the 2022 summer: a cohort study on data from Italian surveillances.

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