Projecting future risk of dengue related to hydrometeorological conditions in mainland China under climate change scenarios: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

We have limited knowledge on the impact of hydrometeorological conditions on dengue incidence in China and its associated disease burden in a future with a changed climate. This study projects the excess risk of dengue caused by climate change-induced hydrometeorological conditions across mainland China.

Methods

In this modelling study, the historical association between the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and dengue was estimated with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model from 70 cities. The association combined with the dengue-transmission biological model was used to project the annual excess risk of dengue related to PDSI by 2100 across mainland China, under three representative concentration pathways ([RCP] 2·6, RCP 4·5, and RCP 8·5).

Findings<

SUBMITTER: Li C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10186180 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature