Projections of future life expectancy in China up to 2035: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To plan social and health services, future life expectancy projections are needed. The aim of this study was to forecast the future life expectancy for mainland China and its provinces.

Methods

Following the same approach as the Global Burden of Disease Study, we used the largest compiled epidemiological and demographic datasets to estimate age-specific mortality and evaluate population data from 1990 to 2019. A total of 21 life expectancy forecasting models were combined by a probabilistic Bayesian model to forecast the life expectancy for mainland China and its provinces in 2035.

Findings

The projected life expectancy at birth in mainland China in 2035 is 81·3 years (95% credible interval 79·2-85·0), and there is a high probability that the national goals

SUBMITTER: Bai R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10188127 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature