Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data.

ABSTRACT: Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections among different communities may thus be misrepresented unless explicitly measured and accounted for in the renewal equations. Here, we first derive the equations that include spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers, ℛ_k(t), in an arbitrary community k. These equations embed a suitable connection matrix blending mobility among connected communities and mobility-related containment measures. Then, we propose a tool to estimate, in a Bayesian framework involving particle filtering, the values of ℛ

SUBMITTER: Trevisin C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10193953 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature