The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic.

ABSTRACT: This manuscript introduces the convergence Epidemic Volatility Index (cEVI), a modification of the recently introduced Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), as an early warning tool for emerging epidemic waves. cEVI has a similar architectural structure as EVI, but with an optimization process inspired by a Geweke diagnostic-type test. Our approach triggers an early warning based on a comparison of the most recently available window of data samples and a window based on the previous time frame. Application of cEVI to data from the COVID-19 pandemic data revealed steady performance in predicting early, intermediate epidemic waves and retaining a warning during an epidemic wave. Furthermore, we present two basic combinations of EVI and cEVI: (1) their disjunction cEVI + that respectively identifi

SUBMITTER: Pateras K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10206801 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature