Optimized Traffic Light System with AIC and Application to the 2021 M6.7 Yangbi Earthquake Sequence.

ABSTRACT: One important question in earthquake prediction is whether a moderate or large earthquake will be followed by an even bigger one. Through temporal b-value evolution analysis, the traffic light system can be used to estimate if an earthquake is a foreshock. However, the traffic light system does not take into account the uncertainty of b-values when they constitute a criterion. In this study, we propose an optimization of the traffic light system with the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and bootstrap. The traffic light signals are controlled by the significance level of the difference in b-value between the sample and the background rather than an arbitrary constant. We applied the optimized traffic light system to the 2021 Yangbi earthquake sequence, which could be

SUBMITTER: Wang R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10217739 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature