Global trends and forecasts of breast cancer incidence and deaths.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Xu Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10224917 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Global trends and forecasts of breast cancer incidence and deaths.
Xu Yuyan Y Gong Maoyuan M Wang Yue Y Yang Yang Y Liu Shu S Zeng Qibing Q
Scientific data 20230527 1
Breast cancer (BC) is one of the major public health challenges worldwide. Studies that address the new evidence on trends of BC are of great importance for preventing and controlling the occurrence and development of diseases and improving health. The aim of this study was to analyze the outcomes for the global burden of disease (GBD), incidence, deaths, and risk factors for BC from 1990 to 2019, and predict the GBD of BC until 2050 to inform global BC control planning efforts. In this study, t ...[more]
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Project description:IntroductionThis study aimed to describe the latest epidemiology of female breast cancer globally, analyze the change pattern of the incidence rates and the disease's association with age, period, and birth cohort, and subsequently present a forecast of breast cancer incidence.MethodsData for analysis were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 and World Population Prospects 2019 revision by the United Nations (UN). We described the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) from 1990 to 2019 and then calculated the relative risks of period and cohort using an age-period-cohort model, and predicted the trends of ASIRs to 2035.ResultsIn 2019, the global incidence of breast cancer in women increased to 1,977,212 (95% uncertainty interval = 1 807 615 to 2 145 215), with an ASIR of 45.86 (41.91 to 49.76) per 100 000 person-year. Among the six selected countries facing burdensome ASIRs, only the USA showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019, whereas the others showed an increasing or stable trend. The overall net drift was similar in Japan (1.78%), India (1.66%), and Russia (1.27%), reflecting increasing morbidity from 1990 to 2019. The increase in morbidity was particularly striking in China (2.60%) and not significant in Germany (0.42%). The ASIRs were predicted to continue to increase globally, from 45.26 in 2010 to 47.36 in 2035. In most countries and regions, the age specific incidence rate is the highest in those aged over 70 years and will increase in all age groups until 2035. In high-income regions, the age specific incidence rates are expected to decline in women aged over 50 years.ConclusionsThe global burden of female breast cancer is becoming more serious, especially in developing countries. Raising awareness of the risk factors and prevention strategies for female breast cancer is necessary to reduce future burden.
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Project description:BackgroundBreast cancer (BC) has been increasing globally, though it is unclear whether the increases are seen across all age groups and regions and whether changes in rates can be primarily attributed to decreasing fertility rates. We investigated age-specific trends in BC incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2017, worldwide and by region, and evaluated whether incidence trends are explained by decreases in fertility.MethodsWe used country-level data to examine trends in BC incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2017 by region and age group. Linear mixed models were used to estimate age-specific rates from baseline models of year and were compared to fertility-adjusted models for incidence.ResultsThe global BC mortality rate increased overall by 0.23% per year (95% CI=0.20, 0.25), with statistically significant increases in the under 50 and 70 and over age groups, and in 5 out of 7 regions. The global BC incidence rate increased overall by 1.44% per year (95% CI=1.42, 1.47), with statistically significant increases in all age groups, and in 6 out of 7 regions. After adjusting for fertility, the incidence annual percent change (APC) remained statistically significant (APC=0.84, 95% CI=0.81, 0.88), in all age groups, and in 6 of 7 regions.InterpretationThe global increase in BC mortality is seen in most age groups and regions. The global increase in BC incidence is seen in all age groups and is highest in women under 50; increases remained in most regions even after considering declining fertility rates.FundingBreast Cancer Research Foundation and National Cancer Institute.
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Project description:The aim of this study was to investigate the global epidemiological trends in the incidence and deaths of acute respiratory infections (ARIs), encompassing both upper respiratory infections (URIs) and lower respiratory infections (LRIs), from 1990 to 2021. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 (GBD 2021), we utilized the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to examine the trends in the age-standardized incidence rate and deaths rate (ASIR and ASDRs) of URIs and LRIs. In 2021, the global ASIR of URIs and LRIs were 166,770.73 (95 % UI: 148,098.16-189,487.93) per 100,000 and 4283.61 (95 % UI: 4057.03-4524.89) per 100,000, respectively. The highest ASIR of URIs occurred in high-sociodemographic index (SDI) regions (232744.64, 95 % UI: 206887.07-261694.81) per 100,000, whereas LRIs occurred in low-SDI regions (9261.1, 95 % UI: 8741.61-9820.86) per 100,000. In 2021, the global ASDRs of URIs and LRIs were 0.28 (95 % UI: 0.09-0.61) per 100,000 and 28.67 (95 % UI: 25.92-31.07) per 100,000, respectively. The highest ASDRs of both URIs and LRIs were observed in low-SDI regions, with 1.1 (95 % UI: 0.08-2.78) per 100,000 and 70.68 (95 % UI: 62.56-78.62) per 100,000, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, the global ASIR for URIs and LRIs decreased, with AAPCs of -0.17 % (95 % CI: 0.17 % to -0.16 %) and -1.28 % (95 % CI: -1.37 % to -1.22 %), respectively. The global ASDRs also decreased (-3.39 % for URIs; -2.46 % for LRIs). However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the ASIR of URIs increased in many countries, especially in high-SDI regions (rate difference before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in ASIR was 2210.19 per 100,000.) and low-SDI regions (rate difference in ASIR: 111.26 per 100,000). The global incidence and deaths related to ARIs have decreased over the past 32 years. However, it remains a significant public health concern, particularly due to the notable incidence of URIs in high SDI regions and the deaths associated with both URIs and LRIs in low SDI regions. Furthermore, an increase in the incidence of URIs was observed in both high- and low-SDI regions during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the need for increased attention.
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Project description:BackgroundLung cancer has been the leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide for many years. This study aimed to investigate the global patterns and trends of lung cancer.MethodsLung cancer incidence and mortality were derived from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Continuous data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Time Trends were used to analyze the temporal trends from 2000 to 2012 using Joinpoint regression, and average annual percent changes were calculated. The association between the Human Development Index and lung cancer incidence and mortality was assessed by linear regression.ResultsAn estimated 2.2 million new lung cancer cases and 1.8 million lung cancer-related deaths occurred in 2020. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) ranged from 36.8 per 100,000 in Demark to 5.9 per 100,000 in Mexico. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) varied from 32.8 per 100,000 in Poland to 4.9 per 100,000 in Mexico. Both ASIR and ASMR were approximately twice higher in men than in women. The ASIR of lung cancer showed a downward trend in the United States of America (USA) between 2000 and 2012, and was more prominent in men. The age-specific incidence rates of lung cancer for ages of 50 to 59 years showed an upward trend in China for both men and women.ConclusionsThe burden of lung cancer is still unsatisfactory, especially in developing countries like China. Considering the effectiveness of tobacco control and screening in developed countries, such as the USA, there is a need to strengthen health education, accelerate the establishment of tobacco control policies and regulations, and improve early cancer screening awareness to reduce the future burden of lung cancer.
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Project description:IntroductionOesophageal cancer is a prevalent and deadly cancer around the world.ObjectivesWe aimed to present a comprehensive analysis of the global geographic patterns and temporal trends in the mortality and incidence of oesophageal cancer.MethodsThe mortality and incidence data of oesophageal cancer in 2020 were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database. Based on World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database and the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5), we also retrieved the mortality and incidence age-standardized rates (ASRs) of oesophageal cancer. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of mortality and incidence were calculated using the joinpoint regression analysis.ResultsGlobally, 0.54 million deaths and 0.6 million new cases were identified in 2020. In the majority of countries of South America and Asia, the mortality and incidence trends have substantially decreased, but trends in European countries have varied. The prevalence in European nations varied, but the incidence in most other continents decreased dramatically. In terms of mortality, the global average rate was 5.6 per 100000, ranging from 16.7 (Malawi) to 0.28 (Belize). European countries varied in mortality, such as Norway (AAPC, male: 0.68; female: 0.89) and Ireland (AAPC, male: -0.96; female: -1.52). Most non-European countries saw large decreases in mortality, such as Singapore (AAPC, male: -4.78; female: -6.89). The elderly had more noticeable trends in mortality and incidence in most countries.ConclusionsWe have identified different trends in mortality and incidence among European countries, whereas declining trends were identified in most non-European countries. However, increasing trends were identified in specific subgroups of some countries, such as men in Thailand. For populations with rising mortality and incidence trends, more preventative efforts are required.
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Project description:BackgroundThe incidence of early-onset breast cancer (< 50 years) has been increasing over the past decades with the role of modifiable, lifestyle-related risk factors remaining mostly unidentified.MethodsTo investigate the role of key lifestyle factors in the incidence trends of early-onset breast cancer (EOBC), we pooled data from six health studies in Finland in 1972-2015 and combined them with breast cancer data from the Finnish Cancer Registry. The cohort consisted of 56,253 women with 397 EOBCs. The effects of risk factors (hazard ratios) on EOBC and average annual percent change (AAPC) of incidence were estimated using Poisson regression models.ResultsThe highest annual increase in age-standardized incidence was observed among women aged 40-49 who were overweight (AAPC 4.0%, 95% CI 0.5-7.7%), currently smoking (AAPC 3.3%, 95% CI 0.1-6.6%) or moderately physically active (AAPC 2.9%, 95% CI 0.3-5.6%).ConclusionsThe increase in early-onset breast cancer incidence was highest among women aged 40-49 who were overweight, currently smoking, or moderately physically active, while no change by risk factors was found in women under 40 years of age. Our findings suggest a different type of cancer process in young adults and highlight the importance of lifestyle risk factors in the incidence of EOBC.
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Project description:BackgroundLong-term breast cancer incidence trends according to proliferation status are poorly described. We studied time-trends in breast cancer incidence, using mitotic count and Ki-67 as markers of proliferation.MethodsAmong 83,298 Norwegian women followed for breast cancer occurrence 1961-2012, 2995 incident breast cancers were diagnosed. Ki-67 was assessed using immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays and mitoses were counted on whole sections. We compared incidence rates according to proliferation status among women born 1886-1928 and 1929-1977, estimating age-specific incidence rate ratios. We performed multiple imputations to account for unknown proliferation status. Mean values of Ki-67 and mitotic counts were calculated, according to age and birth year. We performed separate incidence analyses for HER2+ and triple negative breast cancers.ResultsAmong women aged 40-69 years, incidence rates of tumours with low-proliferative activity were higher among those born in 1929 or later, compared to before 1929, according to Ki-67 and mitotic count. Incidence rates of tumours with high-proliferative activity were also higher in women born in 1929 or later compared to before 1929 according to Ki-67, but not according to mitotic count. Mean values of Ki-67 and mitotic count varied according to age and birth year. In subtype-specific analyses we found an increase of high-proliferative HER2+ tumours according to Ki-67 in women born in 1929 or later, compared to before 1929.ConclusionsThere has been a temporal increase in both low- and high-proliferative breast cancers.
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