Extrapolating empirical long-term survival data: the impact of updated follow-up data and parametric extrapolation methods on survival estimates in multiple myeloma.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In economic evaluations, survival is often extrapolated to smooth out the Kaplan-Meier estimate and because the available data (e.g., from randomized controlled trials) are often right censored. Validation of the accuracy of extrapolated results can depend on the length of follow-up and the assumptions made about the survival hazard. Here, we analyze the accuracy of different extrapolation techniques while varying the data cut-off to estimate long-term survival in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM) patients.

Methods

Empirical data were available from a randomized controlled trial and a registry for MM patients treated with melphalan + prednisone, thalidomide, and bortezomib- based regimens. Standard parametric and spline models were fitted while artificially re

SUBMITTER: Bakker LJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10226243 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature