Forecasting COVID-19 activity in Australia to support pandemic response: May to October 2020.

ABSTRACT: As of January 2021, Australia had effectively controlled local transmission of COVID-19 despite a steady influx of imported cases and several local, but contained, outbreaks in 2020. Throughout 2020, state and territory public health responses were informed by weekly situational reports that included an ensemble forecast of daily COVID-19 cases for each jurisdiction. We present here an analysis of one forecasting model included in this ensemble across the variety of scenarios experienced by each jurisdiction from May to October 2020. We examine how successfully the forecasts characterised future case incidence, subject to variations in data timeliness and completeness, showcase how we adapted these forecasts to support decisions of public health priority in rapidly-evolving situations, eva

SUBMITTER: Moss R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10228456 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature