Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Increasing atmospheric moisture content is expected to intensify precipitation extremes under climate warming. However, extreme precipitation sensitivity (EPS) to temperature is complicated by the presence of reduced or hook-shaped scaling, and the underlying physical mechanisms remain unclear. Here, by using atmospheric reanalysis and climate model projections, we propose a physical decomposition of EPS into thermodynamic and dynamic components (i.e., the effects of atmospheric moisture and vertical ascent velocity) at a global scale in both historical and future climates. Unlike previous expectations, we find that thermodynamics do not always contribute to precipitation intensification, with the lapse rate effect and the pressure component partly offsetting positive EPS. Large anomalies

SUBMITTER: Gu L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10238374 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature