Uncertainty in projections of future lake thermal dynamics is differentially driven by lake and global climate models.

ABSTRACT: Freshwater ecosystems provide vital services, yet are facing increasing risks from global change. In particular, lake thermal dynamics have been altered around the world as a result of climate change, necessitating a predictive understanding of how climate will continue to alter lakes in the future as well as the associated uncertainty in these predictions. Numerous sources of uncertainty affect projections of future lake conditions but few are quantified, limiting the use of lake modeling projections as management tools. To quantify and evaluate the effects of two potentially important sources of uncertainty, lake model selection uncertainty and climate model selection uncertainty, we developed ensemble projections of lake thermal dynamics for a dimictic lake in New Hampshire, USA (Lake S

SUBMITTER: Wynne JH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10241169 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature