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Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study.

ABSTRACT: Access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically hindered by structural socio-economic disparities. Here, we develop a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) selected from all WHO regions. We investigate and quantify the potential effects of higher or earlier doses availability. In doing so, we focus on the crucial initial months of vaccine distribution and administration, exploring counterfactual scenarios where we assume the same per capita daily vaccination rate reported in selected high income countries. We estimate that more than 50% of deaths (min-max range: [54-94%]) that occurred in the analyzed countries could have been averted. We further consider scenarios where LMIC had similarly early access to vaccine doses as high income countries. Even without increasing the number of doses, we estimate an important fraction of deaths (min-max range: [6-50%]) could have been averted. In the absence of the availability of high-income countries, the model suggests that additional non-pharmaceutical interventions inducing a considerable relative decrease of transmissibility (min-max range: [15-70%]) would have been required to offset the lack of vaccines. Overall, our results quantify the negative impacts of vaccine inequities and underscore the need for intensified global efforts devoted to provide faster access to vaccine programs in low and lower-middle-income countries.

SUBMITTER: Gozzi N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10241610 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study.

Gozzi Nicolò N Chinazzi Matteo M Dean Natalie E NE Longini Ira M IM Halloran M Elizabeth ME Perra Nicola N Vespignani Alessandro A

Nature communications 20230606 1

Access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically hindered by structural socio-economic disparities. Here, we develop a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) selected from all WHO regions. We investigate and quantify the potential effects of higher or earlier doses availability. In doing so, we focus on the crucial initial months of vaccine distribution and admini ...[more]

PMID: 37277329

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Project description:In the last two years, the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been a scientific and social challenge worldwide. Vaccines have been the most effective intervention for reducing virus transmission and disease severity. However, virus genetic variants are still circulating among vaccinated individuals with different symptomatology disease cases. Understanding the protective or disease associated mechanisms in vaccinated individuals is relevant to advance in vaccine development and implementation. To address this objective, serum protein profiles were characterized by quantitative proteomics and data analysis algorithms in four cohorts of vaccinated individuals uninfected and SARS-CoV-2 infected with asymptomatic, nonsevere and severe disease symptomatology. The results showed that immunoglobulins were the most overrepresented proteins in infected cohorts when compared to PCR-negative individuals. The immunoglobulin profile varied between different infected cohorts and correlated with protective or disease associated capacity. Overrepresented immunoglobulins in PCR-positive individuals correlated with protective response against SARS-CoV-2, other viruses, and thrombosis in asymptomatic cases. In nonsevere cases, correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 and HBV together with risk of myasthenia gravis and allergy and autoantibodies were observed. Patients with severe symptoms presented risk for allergy, chronic idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, and autoantibodies. The analysis of underrepresented immunoglobulins in PCR-positive compared to PCR-negative individuals identified vaccine-induced protective epitopes in various coronavirus proteins including the Spike receptor-binding domain RBD. Non-immunoglobulin proteins were associated with COVID-19 symptoms and biological processes. These results evidence host-associated differences in response to vaccination and the possibility of improving vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2.

Project description:BackgroundIm/migrants (immigrants and migrants, including refugees, asylum seekers, and individuals without legal documentation) experience unique assets and needs in relation to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Community-based participatory research (CBPR) is one way to engage im/migrant communities. Rochester Healthy Community Partnership (RHCP) is a CBPR partnership in Rochester, Minnesota. RHCP partners noted that credible COVID-19 information was not available to their communities. In response, RHCP formed a COVID-19 Task Force and adapted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) framework to create an intervention that prioritized im/migrant groups experiencing health disparities. In the CERC intervention, communication leaders delivered COVID-19 health messages to their social networks and documented related concerns. RHCP relayed these concerns to regional leaders to ensure that im/migrant experiences were included in decision making. Once vaccines were available, RHCP continued to deploy the CERC intervention to promote vaccination equity. The aims of this paper are to (1) describe the implementation of a bidirectional CERC intervention for vaccination equity, and (2) describe a community-engaged and community-based vaccine clinic intervention.MethodsFirst, we surveyed participants (n = 37) to assess COVID-19 experiences, acceptability of the CERC intervention, and motivation to receive a COVID-19 vaccination. Second, we collaborated with community partners to hold vaccine clinics. We report descriptive statistics from each intervention.ResultsWhen asked about the acceptability of the CERC intervention for vaccine equity, most participants either reported that they 'really liked it' or 'thought it was just ok'. Most participants stated that they would recommend the program to family or friends who have not yet received the COVID-19 vaccine. Almost all participants reported that they felt 'much more' or 'somewhat more' motivated to receive a COVID-19 vaccine after the intervention. We administered 1158 vaccines at the vaccination clinics.ConclusionsWe found that participants viewed the CERC intervention for vaccination equity as an acceptable way to disseminate COVID-19-related information. Nearly all participants reported that the intervention convinced them to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. In our experience, community-engaged and community-based clinics are a successful way to administer vaccines to im/migrant communities during a pandemic.

Project description:After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and its spread across the world, countries have adopted containment measures to stop its transmission, limit fatalities, and relieve hospitals from straining and overwhelming conditions imposed by the virus. Many countries implemented social distancing and lockdown strategies that negatively impacted their economies and the psychological wellbeing of their citizens, even though they contributed to saving lives. Recently approved and available, COVID-19 vaccines can provide a really viable and sustainable option for controlling the pandemic. However, their uptake represents a global challenge due to vaccine hesitancy and logistic-organizational hurdles that have made its distribution stagnant in several developed countries despite several appeals by the media, policy- and decision-makers, and community leaders. Vaccine distribution is also a concern in developing countries, where there is a scarcity of doses. The objective of the present study was to set up a metric to assess vaccination uptake and identify national socio-economic factors influencing this indicator. We conducted a cross-country study. We first estimated the vaccination uptake rate across countries by fitting a logistic model to reported daily case numbers. Using the uptake rate, we estimated the vaccine roll-out index. Next, we used Random Forest, an "off-the-shelf" machine learning algorithm, to study the association between vaccination uptake rate and socio-economic factors. We found that the mean vaccine roll-out index is 0.016 (standard deviation 0.016), with a range between 0.0001 (Haiti) and 0.0829 (Mongolia). The top four factors associated with the vaccine roll-out index are the median per capita income, human development index, percentage of individuals who have used the internet in the last three months, and health expenditure per capita. The still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has shed light on the disparity in vaccine adoption across low- and high-income countries, which represents a global public health challenge. We must pave the way for universal access to vaccines and other approved treatments, regardless of demographic structures and underlying health conditions. Income disparity remains, instead, an important cause of vaccine inequity, which restricts the functioning of the global vaccine allocation framework and, thus, the ending of the pandemic. Stronger mechanisms are needed to foster countries' political willingness to promote vaccine and drug access equity in a globalized society where future pandemics and other global health crises can be anticipated.

Dataset Information

Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study.

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Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study.

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