Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario.

ABSTRACT: The sixth assessment report of the IPCC assessed that the Arctic is projected to be on average practically ice-free in September near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, though not under low emissions scenarios, based on simulations from the latest generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Here we show, using an attribution analysis approach, that a dominant influence of greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in three observational datasets in all months of the year, but is on average underestimated by CMIP6 models. By scaling models' sea ice response to greenhouse gases to best match the observed trend in an approach validated in an imperfect model test, we project an ice-free Arctic in September

SUBMITTER: Kim YH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10244426 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature