Feasible intervention combinations for achieving a safe exit of the Zero-COVID policy in China and its determinants: an individual-based model study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Although several pathways have been proposed as the prerequisite for a safe phase-out in China, it is not clear which of them are the most important for keeping the mortality rate low, what thresholds should be achieved for these most important interventions, and how the thresholds change with the assumed key epidemiological parameters and population characteristics.

Methods

We developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the transmission of the Omicron variant in the synthetic population, accounting for the age-dependent probabilities of severe clinical outcomes, waning vaccine-induced immunity, increased mortality rates when hospitals are overburdened, and reduced transmission when self-isolated at home after testing positive. We applied machine learnin

SUBMITTER: Cheng Q 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10258473 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature