Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data.

ABSTRACT: The factors leading to the global emergence of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 as a cause of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in children are unknown. To investigate potential changes in virus transmissibility or population susceptibility, we measured the seroprevalence of EV-D68-specific neutralising antibodies in serum samples collected in England in 2006, 2011, and 2017. Using catalytic mathematical models, we estimate an approximately 50% increase in the annual probability of infection over the 10-year study period, coinciding with the emergence of clade B around 2009. Despite such increase in transmission, seroprevalence data suggest that the virus was already widely circulating before the AFM outbreaks and the increase of infections by age cannot explain the observed number of AFM cases

SUBMITTER: Pons-Salort M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10259368 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature