Epidemiological analysis and risk prediction of scrub typhus from 2006 to 2021 in Sichuan, China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In the past decade, the number of reported cases of scrub typhus (ST) has increased dramatically in Sichuan Province. We aimed to overview the epidemiological characteristics of ST, identify the variables contributing to the spatial distribution, and estimate the risk areas of ST occurrence.

Methods

Daily ST cases reported at the county level from 2006 to 2021 and datasets on environmental and socioeconomic variables were obtained. Joinpoint regression model was utilized to examine the incidence trends and to calculate the annual percentage change. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis was employed to explore the spatial temporal patterns. Then BRT model was employed to identify variables that make sense and predict the risk areas of ST occurrence.

Result

SUBMITTER: Zhang Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10261982 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature