Cohort bias in predictive risk assessments of future criminal justice system involvement.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Montana E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10265989 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Cohort bias in predictive risk assessments of future criminal justice system involvement.
Montana Erika E Nagin Daniel S DS Neil Roland R Sampson Robert J RJ
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20230530 23
Risk assessment instruments (RAIs) are widely used to aid high-stakes decision-making in criminal justice settings and other areas such as health care and child welfare. These tools, whether using machine learning or simpler algorithms, typically assume a time-invariant relationship between predictors and outcome. Because societies are themselves changing and not just individuals, this assumption may be violated in many behavioral settings, generating what we call cohort bias. Analyzing criminal ...[more]
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Project description:ImportanceHealth disparities between African Americans and Whites have persisted in the United States. Researchers have recently hypothesized that the relatively poor health of African Americans may be caused, in part, by African American overrepresentation in the criminal justice system.ObjectivesTo test the hypothesis that criminal justice system involvement is associated with poor health and greater health risk when controlling for unobserved family factors through a discordant sibling design.MethodsSubjects were drawn from the Carolina African American Twin Study of Aging (CAATSA). Criminal conviction records were extracted from North Carolina's Department of Public Safety. Six measures of health and one measure of health risk were analyzed. The health of convicted respondents was compared to that of unrelated non-convicted respondents matched on childhood and demographic factors ("matched sample"). Convicted respondents were also compared to non-convicted siblings ("discordant sibling sample").ResultsThe matched sample included 134 CAATSA respondents. On average, convicted CAATSA respondents, compared to matched non-convicted respondents, were in worse health. Convicted respondents had worse mean self-reported health, worse lung function, more depressive symptoms, and smoked more. The discordant sibling sample included 74 respondents. Convicted siblings and non-convicted siblings had similar self-reported health, depressive symptoms, and smoking. In general, non-convicted siblings were in worse health than non-convicted respondents from the matched sample, implying that poor health runs in families.ConclusionsThis study provided preliminary evidence that some of the association between a criminal record and poor health is confounded by family factors. Though more research is needed to support these results, the study suggests that criminal involvement may not be associated with the surfeit of health problems observed among African Americans. The criminal justice system, nonetheless, could be used to decrease the health disparity.
| S-EPMC6369245 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundParental criminal justice system (CJS) involvement is a marker for child protective services (CPS) involvement.ObjectiveTo document how parental criminal case processing affects children's CPS involvement.Participants and settingParticipants included mothers and fathers with a serious criminal charge (mothers = 78,882; fathers = 165,070) and without any criminal charge (mothers = 962,963; fathers = 743,604) between 2008-2012. Statewide North Carolina records on court proceedings, births, CPS assessments/investigations, and foster care placements were used.MethodsThe observational unit was an individual's first charge date of a year. Outcomes were CPS assessment/investigation and foster care entry within six months and alternatively three years following the charge. Key explanatory variables were whether the charges resulted in prosecution, conviction following prosecution, and an active sentence conditional on conviction. An instrumental variables approach was used.ResultsParents charged with a criminal offense had higher rates of having a CPS assessment/investigation during the three years preceding the charge than parents who were not charged. Among mothers who were convicted, CPS assessment/investigation increased 8.1 percent (95 % CI: 2.2, 13.9) and 9.5 percent (95 % CI: 1.3, 17.6) 6 months and 3 years following the charge. An active sentence increased CPS assessment/investigations by 21.6 percent (95 % CI: 6.4, 36.7) within 6 months. For fathers, active sentence increased foster care placement by 1.6 percent (95 % CI: 0.24, 2.9) within 6 months of the criminal charge.ConclusionsChanging parental incarceration rates would change CPS caseloads substantially. The criminal justice and CPS systems work with overlapping populations, data and services sharing should be considered a high priority.
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Project description:Background People returning to communities from prison or jail face stressors related to securing housing, including discrimination, restrictions based on prior felony convictions, and limited economic and social resources. Existing housing programs can effectively reduce housing instability but often do not fully address the needs of people involved in the criminal justice system experiencing homelessness who often have co-occurring chronic medical issues, and psychiatric and substance use disorders. Methods Project CHANGE is an ongoing program to deliver person-centered, integrated care and services to individuals involved with the criminal justice system and experiencing homelessness. Applying a Screening, Brief Intervention, (Referral to) Treatment framework, a comprehensive needs assessment is followed by delivery of intensive housing and vocational case management; and psychiatric, substance use, and medical services in a single location by an interdisciplinary team. Participants are followed with study interviews for 12 months. The current analysis was designed to assess the baseline characteristics and needs of the sample population, and the intensity of contact required for integrated service delivery. Results Between November 2019 and September 2021, 86 participants were enrolled, of whom 64% had been released from prison/jail in the past 6 months; the remainder were on parole, probation, or intensive pretrial supervision. Participants were unstably housed (64%) or residing outdoors (26.7%) or in a shelter (24.4%). Most participants had high medical need and frequent healthcare engagement through outpatient and emergency department visits. Most participants were at-risk for clinical depression, and half were diagnosed with anxiety, dissociative, stress-related, somatoform, and other non-psychotic psychiatric disorders. Over 12-month follow-up, the interdisciplinary team made over 500 contact encounters, over half of which resulted in direct services provided, including obtaining vital documents for homelessness verification, housing applications, and employment coaching. Conclusion Navigation of services can be particularly challenging for individuals experiencing criminal justice involvement, homelessness, and co-occurring medical, psychiatric, and substance use issues, which can be addressed holistically in an integrated service model. Integrated service delivery was time-, resource-, and staffing-intensive, and challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic, requiring innovative solutions to sustain participant engagement. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-15108-w.
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Project description:ObjectiveTo examine criminal justice system (CJS) interactions and pathways through the justice system for young adults with ADHD compared to young adults without ADHD.MethodNationwide 3-year birth cohort study using linked health and CJS data. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to examine associations between ADHD and police proceedings, court charges, court convictions, and incarcerations.ResultsYoung adults with ADHD were significantly more likely to interact with the CJS including police proceedings (hazard ratio [HR], 2.1 95% CI [2.0, 2.2]) court charges (HR, 2.2 95% CI [2.1, 2.3]), court convictions (HR, 2.3 95% CI [2.2, 2.4]), and incarceration (HR, 4.8 95% CI [4.3, 5.4]).ConclusionsYoung adults with ADHD are overrepresented at all stages of the CJS. Results highlight the importance of early identification and responsivity to ADHD within the CJS and suggest that the NZ justice system may require changes to both areas to ensure that young individuals with ADHD receive equitable access to, and treatment within, the CJS.
| S-EPMC10498656 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The policies of U.S. local public housing authorities influence which populations have access to stable housing, an important resource for health. We assessed whether the restrictiveness of local public housing authority policies related to people with criminal justice histories-a population at high risk for HIV/STIs-were associated with HIV/STI rates at the local-level. An ecological analysis was conducted using data from 107 local public housing authority jurisdictions. The independent variable was a score that quantified the presence/absence of eight policies related to the ability of people with criminal justice histories to obtain and retain public housing. The dependent variables were county-level rates of HIV, gonorrhea, syphilis, and chlamydia. Ordinary least squares regression with state fixed effects was used. We find that the restrictiveness of housing authority policies towards people with criminal justice histories were significantly associated with higher HIV and gonorrhea rates, but not syphilis or chlamydia. For example, local housing authorities with a policy score more restrictive than the median score had an additional 6.05 cases of HIV per 100,000 population (32.9% increase relative to the mean rate) and 84.61 cases of newly diagnosed gonorrhea (41.3% increase). Local public housing authority policies related to people with criminal justice histories could affect HIV/STI risk at the population-level. These policies should be considered in studies and interventions at the intersection of housing, health, and justice involved populations.
| S-EPMC8597229 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Lay abstractThere has been growing interest in offending and contact with the criminal justice system (CJS) by people with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, it is not clear whether people with ASD offend more than those without ASD. Studies have started to look at whether there are particular offences people with ASD are more likely to commit and whether there are any factors that can affect whether someone comes into contact with the CJS as a potential suspect. This study looked at the patients who attended an ASD diagnostic service over a 17-year period to see the rate of contact with the CJS of those who were diagnosed with ASD and whether there were any particular factors that might increase the risk of CJS contact. Nearly a quarter of the ASD group had some contact with the CJS as a potential suspect. Factors that seemed to increase whether someone with ASD was more likely to have contact with the CJS were being male, being diagnosed with ADHD, and being diagnosed with psychosis. This study is one of the largest studies to investigate the rate of CJS contact as a potential suspect in a sample of adults with ASD in an attempt to give a clearer picture of what might influence someone with ASD to engage in offending behaviour in order to try to see what mental health services can offer to reduce the likelihood of someone with ASD coming into contact with the CJS, for example, treatment for another condition or support.
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Project description:BackgroundPersons in addiction treatment are likely to experience and/or witness drug overdoses following treatment and thus could benefit from overdose education and naloxone distribution (OEND) programs. Diverting individuals from the criminal justice system to addiction treatment represents one treatment engagement pathway, yet OEND needs among these individuals have not been fully described.MethodsWe characterized justice involvement patterns among 514 people who use opioids (PWUO) participating in a criminal justice diversion addiction treatment program during 2014-2016 using a gender-stratified latent class analysis. We described prevalence and correlates of naloxone knowledge using quasi-Poisson regression models with robust standard errors.ResultsOnly 56% of participants correctly identified naloxone as an opioid overdose treatment despite that 68% had experienced an overdose and 79% had witnessed another person overdose. We identified two latent justice involvement classes: low involvement (20.3% of men, 46.5% of women), characterized by older age at first arrest, more past-year arrests, and less time incarcerated; and high involvement (79.7% of men, 53.5% of women), characterized by younger age at first arrest and more lifetime arrests and time incarcerated. Justice involvement was not associated with naloxone knowledge. Male participants who had personally overdosed more commonly identified naloxone as an overdose treatment after adjustment for age, race, education level, housing status, heroin use, and injection drug use (prevalence ratio [95% confidence interval]: men 1.5 [1.1-2.0]).ConclusionsAll PWUO in criminal justice diversion programs could benefit from OEND given the high propensity to experience and witness overdoses and low naloxone knowledge across justice involvement backgrounds and genders.
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Project description:ImportanceResponding to the opioid crisis requires tools to identify individuals at risk of overdose. Given the expansion of illicit opioid deaths, it is essential to consider risk factors across multiple service systems.ObjectiveTo develop a predictive risk model to identify opioid overdose using linked clinical and criminal justice data.Design, setting, and participantsA cross-sectional sample was created using 2015 data from 4 Maryland databases: all-payer hospital discharges, the prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP), public-sector specialty behavioral treatment, and criminal justice records for property or drug-associated offenses. Maryland adults aged 18 to 80 years with records in any of 4 databases were included, excluding individuals who died in 2015 or had a non-Maryland zip code. Logistic regression models were estimated separately for risk of fatal and nonfatal opioid overdose in 2016. Model performance was assessed using bootstrapping. Data analysis took place from February 2018 to November 2019.ExposuresControlled substance prescription fills and hospital, specialty behavioral health, or criminal justice encounters.Main outcomes and measuresFatal opioid overdose defined by the state medical examiner and 1 or more nonfatal overdoses treated in Maryland hospitals during 2016.ResultsThere were 2 294 707 total individuals in the sample, of whom 42.3% were male (n = 970 019) and 53.0% were younger than 50 years (647 083 [28.2%] aged 18-34 years and 568 160 [24.8%] aged 35-49 years). In 2016, 1204 individuals (0.05%) in the sample experienced fatal opioid overdose and 8430 (0.37%) experienced nonfatal opioid overdose. In adjusted analysis, the factors mostly strongly associated with fatal overdose were male sex (odds ratio [OR], 2.40 [95% CI, 2.08-2.76]), diagnosis of opioid use disorder in a hospital (OR, 2.93 [95% CI, 2.17-3.80]), release from prison in 2015 (OR, 4.23 [95% CI, 2.10-7.11]), and receiving opioid addiction treatment with medication (OR, 2.81 [95% CI, 2.20-3.86]). Similar associations were found for nonfatal overdose. The area under the curve for fatal overdose was 0.82 for a model with hospital variables, 0.86 for a model with both PDMP and hospital variables, and 0.89 for a model that further added behavioral health and criminal justice variables. For nonfatal overdose, the area under the curve using all variables was 0.85.Conclusions and relevanceIn this analysis, fatal and nonfatal opioid overdose could be accurately predicted with linked administrative databases. Hospital encounter data had higher predictive utility than PDMP data. Model performance was meaningfully improved by adding PDMP records. Predictive models using linked databases can be used to target large-scale public health programs.
| S-EPMC7315388 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We investigate whether autistic people's vulnerability is taken into account at each stage of the criminal justice system (CJS). Defense lawyers from 12 nations were included in the study although the sample was predominantly from the UK. Lawyers completed an online survey regarding one case in which they had defended an autistic client between January 2015 and January 2020; and on one case in which they had defended a nonautistic client charged with a similar offense, to provide a comparison group. Ninety-three lawyers (85% in the UK) reported on one autistic case, and 53 also reported on one nonautistic case. 75% of autistic clients were not given reasonable adjustments during the process. Only 43% were offered an appropriate adult during police investigations, even though they had an existing diagnosis of autism. 59% of prosecution barristers and 46% of judges said or did something during the trial that made the lawyers concerned that they did not have an adequate understanding of autism. Lawyers were 7.58 times more likely to be concerned about their autistic client's effective participation in court and were 3.83 times more likely to be concerned that their autistic clients would engage in self-harm, compared with their nonautistic clients. There is a failure to identify and address autistic peoples' disability within the CJS. There is a need for mandatory autism training for police officers and the judiciary, with a focus on identifying autism and understanding the needs of autistic people so that reasonable adjustments are offered in all cases. LAY SUMMARY: This study sought to investigate if the needs of autistic people are being overlooked by the police and other professionals within the CJS. Results show that autistic people are not always given the support they need during police questioning or in court. The experience of being involved with the police may also have a more negative impact on autistic peoples' mental health than that of nonautistic people.
| S-EPMC9314022 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceIndividuals who are incarcerated represent a vulnerable group due to concerns about their ability to provide voluntary and informed consent, and there are considerable legal protections regarding their participation in medical research. Little is known about the quality of surgical care received by this population.ObjectiveTo evaluate perioperative surgical care provided to patients who are incarcerated within the Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) and compare their outcomes with that of the general nonincarcerated population.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study analyzed data from patients who were incarcerated within the TDCJ and underwent general or vascular surgery at the University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) from 2012 to 2021. Case-specific outcomes for a subset of these patients and for patients in the general academic medical center population were obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) and compared. Additional quality metrics (mortality index, length of stay index, and excess hospital days) from the Vizient Clinical Data Base were analyzed for patients in the incarcerated and nonincarcerated groups who underwent surgery at UTMB in 2020 and 2021 to provide additional recent data. Patient-specific demographics, including age, sex, and comorbidities were not available for analysis within this data set.Main outcome and measuresPerioperative outcomes (30-day morbidity, mortality, and readmission rates) were compared between the incarcerated and nonincarcerated groups using the Fisher exact test.ResultsThe sample included data from 6675 patients who were incarcerated and underwent general or vascular surgery at UTMB from 2012 to 2021. The ACS-NSQIP included data (2012-2021) for 2304 patients who were incarcerated and 602 patients who were not and showed that outcomes were comparable between the TDCJ population and that of the general population treated at the academic medical center with regard to 30-day readmission (6.60% vs 5.65%) and mortality (0.91% vs 1.16%). However, 30-day morbidity was significantly higher in the TDCJ population (8.25% vs 5.48%, P = .01). The 2020 and 2021 data from the Vizient Clinical Data Base included 629 patients who were incarcerated and 2614 who were not and showed that the incarcerated and nonincarcerated populations did not differ with regard to 30-day readmission (12.52% vs 11.30%) or morbidity (1.91% vs 2.60%). Although the unadjusted mortality rate was significantly lower in the TDCJ population (1.27% vs 2.68%, P = .04), mortality indexes, which account for case mix index, were similar between the 2 populations (1.17 vs 1.12).Conclusions and relevanceFindings of this cohort study suggest that patients who are incarcerated have equivalent rates of mortality and readmission compared with a general academic medical center population. Future studies that focus on elucidating the potential factors associated with perioperative morbidity and exploring long-term surgical outcomes in the incarcerated population are warranted.
| S-EPMC10701659 | biostudies-literature