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Unequal Opportunity Spreaders: Higher COVID-19 Deaths with Later School Closure in the United States.


ABSTRACT: Mixed evidence on the relationship between school closure and COVID-19 prevalence could reflect focus on large-scale levels of geography, limited ability to address endogeneity, and demographic variation. Using county-level Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 data through June 15, 2020, two matching strategies address potential heterogeneity: nearest geographic neighbor and propensity scores. Within nearest neighboring pairs in different states with different school closure timing, each additional day from a county's first case until state-ordered school closure is related to 1.5 to 2.4 percent higher cumulative COVID-19 deaths per capita (1,227-1,972 deaths for a county with median population and deaths/capita). Results are consistent using propensity score matching, COVID-19 data from two alternative sources, and additional sensitivity analyses. School closure is more strongly related to COVID-19 deaths in counties with a high concentration of Black or poor residents, suggesting schools play an unequal role in transmission and earlier school closure is related to fewer lives lost in disadvantaged counties.

SUBMITTER: Rauscher E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10275350 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Unequal Opportunity Spreaders: Higher COVID-19 Deaths with Later School Closure in the United States.

Rauscher Emily E   Burns Ailish A  

Sociological perspectives : SP : official publication of the Pacific Sociological Association 20210409 5


Mixed evidence on the relationship between school closure and COVID-19 prevalence could reflect focus on large-scale levels of geography, limited ability to address endogeneity, and demographic variation. Using county-level Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 data through June 15, 2020, two matching strategies address potential heterogeneity: nearest geographic neighbor and propensity scores. Within nearest neighboring pairs in different states with different school closure  ...[more]

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