Dataset Information

Tracking volcanic explosions using Shannon entropy at Volcan de Colima.

ABSTRACT: The main objective of this work is to show that Shannon Entropy (SE) calculated on continuous seismic signals can be used in a volcanic eruption monitoring system. We analysed three years of volcanic activity of Volcán de Colima, México, recorded between January 2015 and May 2017. This period includes two large explosions, with pyroclastic and lava flows, and intense activity of less energetic explosion, culminating with a period of quiescence. In order to confirm the success of our results, we used images of the Visual Monitoring system of Colima Volcano Observatory. Another of the objectives of this work is to show how the decrease in SE values can be used to track minor explosive activity, helping Machine Learning algorithms to work more efficiently in the complex problem of distinguishing the explosion signals in the seismograms. We show that the two big eruptions selected were forecasted successfully (6 and 2 days respectively) using the decay of SE. We conclude that SE could be used as a complementary tool in seismic volcano monitoring, showing its successful behaviour prior to energetic eruptions, giving time enough to alert the population and prepare for the consequences of an imminent and well predicted moment of the eruption.

SUBMITTER: Rey-Devesa P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10276871 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Tracking volcanic explosions using Shannon entropy at Volcán de Colima.

Rey-Devesa Pablo P Prudencio Janire J Benítez Carmen C Bretón Mauricio M Plasencia Imelda I León Zoraida Z Ortigosa Félix F Gutiérrez Ligdamis L Arámbula-Mendoza Raúl R Ibáñez Jesús M JM

Scientific reports 20230617 1

The main objective of this work is to show that Shannon Entropy (SE) calculated on continuous seismic signals can be used in a volcanic eruption monitoring system. We analysed three years of volcanic activity of Volcán de Colima, México, recorded between January 2015 and May 2017. This period includes two large explosions, with pyroclastic and lava flows, and intense activity of less energetic explosion, culminating with a period of quiescence. In order to confirm the success of our results, we ...[more]

PMID: 37330531

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Project description:ObjectiveClinical trial outcomes often involve an ordinal scale of subjective functional assessments but the optimal way to quantify results is not clear. In stroke, the most commonly used scale, the modified Rankin Score (mRS), a range of scores ("Shift") is proposed as superior to dichotomization because of greater information transfer. The influence of known uncertainties in mRS assessment has not been quantified. We hypothesized that errors caused by uncertainties could be quantified by applying information theory. Using Shannon's model, we quantified errors of the "Shift" compared to dichotomized outcomes using published distributions of mRS uncertainties and applied this model to clinical trials.MethodsWe identified 35 randomized stroke trials that met inclusion criteria. Each trial's mRS distribution was multiplied with the noise distribution from published mRS inter-rater variability to generate an error percentage for "shift" and dichotomized cut-points. For the SAINT I neuroprotectant trial, considered positive by "shift" mRS while the larger follow-up SAINT II trial was negative, we recalculated sample size required if classification uncertainty was taken into account.ResultsConsidering the full mRS range, error rate was 26.1%±5.31 (Mean±SD). Error rates were lower for all dichotomizations tested using cut-points (e.g. mRS 1; 6.8%±2.89; overall p<0.001). Taking errors into account, SAINT I would have required 24% more subjects than were randomized.ConclusionWe show when uncertainty in assessments is considered, the lowest error rates are with dichotomization. While using the full range of mRS is conceptually appealing, a gain of information is counter-balanced by a decrease in reliability. The resultant errors need to be considered since sample size may otherwise be underestimated. In principle, we have outlined an approach to error estimation for any condition in which there are uncertainties in outcome assessment. We provide the user with programs to calculate and incorporate errors into sample size estimation.

Dataset Information

Tracking volcanic explosions using Shannon entropy at Volcan de Colima.

Publications

Tracking volcanic explosions using Shannon entropy at Volcán de Colima.

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