How to model the impact of vaccines for policymaking when the characteristics are uncertain: A case study in Thailand prior to the vaccine rollout during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT: Thailand faced a dilemma of which groups to prioritise with a limited first tranche of COVID-19 vaccinations in early 2021, at a time when there was low incidence and low mortality in the country. A mathematical modelling analysis was performed to compare the potential short-term impact of allocating the available doses to either the high severity group (over 65-year-olds) or the high transmission group (aged 20-39). At the time of the analysis, there was uncertainty about the precise characteristics of the vaccines available, in terms of their potential impact on transmission and reductions to the severity of infection. As such, a range of vaccine characteristic scenarios, with differing levels of severity and transmission reductions were explored. Using the evidence available at the time

SUBMITTER: Luangasanatip N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10281228 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature