Japanese encephalitis transmission trends in Gansu, China: A time series predictive model based on spatial dispersion.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study serves to ascertain trends of space and time for Japanese encephalitis (JE) transmission at the township-level and develop an innovative time series predictive model to predict the geographical spread of JE in Gansu Province, China.

Methods

We collected weekly data on JE from 2005 to 2019 at the township-level. Kriging interpolation maps were used to visualize the trend of the epidemic spread of JE, and linear regression models were used to calculate the monthly changes in minimum longitude and maximum latitude of emerging towns with JE to assess the speed of the epidemic's spread to the northwest. Additionally, we utilized a time series Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to dynamically predict the ongoing weekly number of J

SUBMITTER: Wang X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10288096 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature