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Attitudinal analysis of vaccination effects to lead endemic phases.

ABSTRACT: To achieve endemic phases, repeated vaccinations are necessary. However, individuals may grapple with whether to get vaccinated due to potential side effects. When an individual is already immune due to previous infections or vaccinations, the perceived risk from vaccination is often less than the risk of infection. Yet, repeated rounds of vaccination can lead to avoidance, impeding the establishment of endemic phases. We explore this phenomenon using an individual-based Monte Carlo simulation, validating our findings with game theory. The Nash equilibrium encapsulates individuals' non-cooperative behavior, while the system's optimal value represents the societal benefits of altruistic cooperation. We define the difference between these as the price of anarchy. Our simulations reveal that the price of anarchy must fall below a threshold of 12.47 for endemic phases to be achieved in a steady state. This suggests that for a basic reproduction number of 10, a consistent vaccination rate greater than 89% is required. These findings offer new insights into vaccination-related decision-making and can inform effective strategies to tackle infectious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Ku D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10290696 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Attitudinal analysis of vaccination effects to lead endemic phases.

Ku Donggyun D Kim Gahyun G Peck Kyong Ran KR Park In Kwon IK Chang Rakwoo R Kim Donghan D Lee Seungjae S

Scientific reports 20230624 1

To achieve endemic phases, repeated vaccinations are necessary. However, individuals may grapple with whether to get vaccinated due to potential side effects. When an individual is already immune due to previous infections or vaccinations, the perceived risk from vaccination is often less than the risk of infection. Yet, repeated rounds of vaccination can lead to avoidance, impeding the establishment of endemic phases. We explore this phenomenon using an individual-based Monte Carlo simulation, ...[more]

PMID: 37355758

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Project description:BackgroundJapanese encephalitis (JE) virus is the leading cause of vaccine-preventable encephalitis and a significant cause of disability in Asia and the western Pacific. Many countries have introduced JE vaccination programs, including several low resource countries following WHO's prioritization of JE vaccination in 2006. We sought to characterize the public health impact of JE vaccination programs.Methodology/principal findingsJE case data and vaccination coverage rates, were requested from country health officials in 23 JE endemic countries and Chinese Taipei. Additional data were extracted from meeting presentations and published literature. JE incidence was compared before and after vaccination using a minimum three year period pre and post program introduction or expansion. Data suitable for analysis were available for 13 JE-endemic countries and Chinese Taipei, for either all age groups or for children aged under 15 years only. Five countries and Chinese Taipei introduced vaccine prior to 2006 and the all-age JE incidence was reduced by 73-100% in about 5-20 years following introduction. Six countries have introduced JE vaccine since 2006, and JE incidence in children aged younger than 15 years has been reduced by 14-79% as of 2015-2021. JE-specific data were unavailable before introduction in Thailand and Vietnam, but vaccination programs reduced acute encephalitis incidence by 80% and 74%, respectively. Even in the programs with greatest impact, it took several years to achieve their results.Conclusions/significanceJE vaccination has greatly reduced JE in 13 JE-endemic countries and Chinese Taipei. Highest impact has been observed in countries that introduced prior to 2006, but it often took roughly two decades and substantial resources to achieve that level of success. For greatest possible impact, more recently introducing countries and funding agencies should commit to continuous improvements in delivery systems to sustain coverage after initial vaccine introduction.

Dataset Information

Attitudinal analysis of vaccination effects to lead endemic phases.

Publications

Attitudinal analysis of vaccination effects to lead endemic phases.

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