Dataset Information

Predictive validation of existing bleeding and thromboembolic scores in elderly patients with comorbid atrial fibrillation and acute coronary syndrome.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The validation of various risk scores in elderly patients with comorbid atrial fibrillation (AF) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) has not been reported. The present study compared the predictive performance of existing risk scores in these patients.

Methods

A total of 1252 elderly patients with AF and ACS comorbidities (≥ 65 years old) were consecutively enrolled from January 2015 to December 2019. All patients were followed up for one year. The predictive performance of risk scores in predicting bleeding and thromboembolic events was calculated and compared.

Results

During the 1-year follow-up, 183 (14.6%) patients had thromboembolic events, 198 (15.8%) patients had BARC class ≥ 2 bleeding events, and 61 (4.9%) patients had BARC class ≥ 3 bleeding events. For the BARC class ≥ 3 bleeding events, discrimination of the existing risk scores was low to moderate, PRECISE-DAPT (C-statistic: 0.638, 95% CI: 0.611-0.665), ATRIA (C-statistic: 0.615, 95% CI: 0.587-0.642), PARIS-MB (C-statistic: 0.612, 95% CI: 0.584-0.639), HAS-BLED (C-statistic: 0.597, 95% CI: 0.569-0.624) and CRUSADE (C-statistic: 0.595, 95% CI: 0.567-0.622). However, the calibration was good. PRECISE-DAPT showed a higher integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) than PARIS-MB, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and CRUSADE (P < 0.05) and the best decision curve analysis (DCA). For thromboembolic events, the discrimination of GRACE (C-statistic: 0.636, 95% CI: 0.608-0.662) was higher than CHA2DS2-VASc (C-statistic: 0.612, 95% CI: 0.584-0.639), OPT-CAD (C-statistic: 0.602, 95% CI: 0.574-0.629) and PARIS-CTE (C-statistic: 0.595, 95% CI: 0.567-0.622). The calibration was good. Compared to OPT-CAD and PARIS-CTE, the IDI of the GRACE score slightly improved (P < 0.05). However, NRI analysis showed no significant difference. DCA showed that the clinical practicability of thromboembolic risk scores was similar.

Conclusions

The discrimination and calibration of existing risk scores in predicting 1-year thromboembolic and bleeding events were unsatisfactory in elderly patients with comorbid AF and ACS. PRECISE-DAPT showed higher IDI and DCA than other risk scores in predicting BARC class ≥ 3 bleeding events. The GRACE score showed a slight advantage in predicting thrombotic events.

SUBMITTER: Zhang HH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10308176 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predictive validation of existing bleeding and thromboembolic scores in elderly patients with comorbid atrial fibrillation and acute coronary syndrome.

Zhang Hong-Hong HH Liu Qi Q Zhao Hai-Jing HJ Yu Ya-Ni YN Tian Liu-Yang LY Zhang Ying-Yue YY Fu Zi-Hao ZH Zheng Li L Zhu Yue Y Ma Yu-Han YH Li Shuang S Ma Yang-Yang YY Liu Yu-Qi YQ

Journal of geriatric cardiology : JGC 20230501 5

<h4>Background</h4>The validation of various risk scores in elderly patients with comorbid atrial fibrillation (AF) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) has not been reported. The present study compared the predictive performance of existing risk scores in these patients.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 1252 elderly patients with AF and ACS comorbidities (≥ 65 years old) were consecutively enrolled from January 2015 to December 2019. All patients were followed up for one year. The predictive performance ...[more]

PMID: 37397870

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Project description:BackgroundThe predictive value of bleeding risk scores for atrial fibrillation in older patients is not as well known. The goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of HASBLED, ORBIT and ATRIA for major bleeding (MB) and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients ≥ 75 years with atrial fibrillation and oral anticoagulation (OAC).MethodsA retrospective unicenter study including patients ≥ 75 years with atrial fibrillation (AF) and OAC. A total of 7613 patients ≥ 75 years with AF and OAC included between 2014 and 2018 (registry: NCT04364516). We analyzed the discriminative value of HASBLED, ATRIA and ORBIT scores for bleeding endpoints (major bleeding as primary endpoint and intracerebral hemorrhage as secondary). Cox regression was used to predict major bleeding with each scale and also for searching other variables potentially predictor of major bleeding. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic. Calibration was assessed with goodness-of-fit test proposed by Gronnesby and Borgan.ResultsDuring a mean follow up of 4.0 years (IQR: 2.4-5.7 years), 729 patients developed MB (2.61 per 100 patients/year) and 243 patients developed ICH (0.85 per 100 patients/year). Three scores showed a low discrimination for major bleeding, being ORBIT the best (HASBLED C statistic = 0.557; ATRIA C statistic = 0.568; ORBIT C statistic = 0.595) and also a low discrimination for ICH (HASBLED C statistic = 0.509; ATRIA C statistic = 0.522; ORBIT C statistic = 0.526). Among the variables that are part of the scores and other baseline characteristics, after multivariable adjustment only sex (male), dementia, prior admission for bleeding, anemia and liver disease were found as a predictors of MB.ConclusionsIn older patients under oral anticoagulation with atrial fibrillation, the risk scores HASBLED, ATRIA and ORBIT showed a weak discrimination for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage. Therefore, other better alternatives should be evaluated for this purpose.

Project description:BackgroundDespite direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) being safer than warfarin for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), major bleeding concerns persist. Most bleeding risk scores predate DOAC approval.ObjectivesThis study aimed to compare the Age, history of Bleeding, and non-bleeding related Hospitalisation [ABH] score's performance-derived for DOAC-treated patients-with those of 5 other scores (Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation [ATRIA], Hypertension, Abnormal renal/liver function, Stroke, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile international normalized ratio, Elderly [>65 years], Drugs/alcohol concomitantly [HAS-BLED], Hepatic, Hepatic or Renal Disease, Ethanol Abuse, Malignancy, Older Age, Reduced Platelet Count or Function, Re-Bleeding, Hypertension, Anemia, Genetic Factors, Excessive Fall Risk and Stroke [HEMORR2HAGES], Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation [ORBIT-AF], and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 [doubled], Diabetes, Stroke [doubled]-Vascular disease, Age 65-74, Sex category [CHA2DS2-VASc]) in predicting DOAC-related major bleeding in patients with AF.MethodsIn this retrospective study of 2364 patients with nonvalvular AF on rivaroxaban or apixaban (median age, 68.3 years; 32.1% women), International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis-defined major bleeding (incidence, 4.1%; n = 97) was analyzed. C-statistics from time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for continuous risk scores were the primary comparison metric, but other metrics, such as decision curves, were also compared.ResultsAt 100 days, C-statistics were highest for ORBIT-AF and ATRIA (0.62 and 0.61, respectively, with other scores having an area under the ROC curve of <0.60); some significant differences favored ORBIT-AF. At 1100 days, C-statistics remained highest for ORBIT-AF and ATRIA (0.62 and 0.61, respectively, with other scores having an area under the ROC curve of <0.60 again), and ORBIT-AF had significantly higher C-statistics than those for all other risk scores (P < .05), except for ATRIA. At 2100 days, all C-statistics were <0.60 with no significant differences. Decision curves showed the greatest net benefit for ORBIT-AF and ATRIA at 100 days and for ATRIA at 1100 days, with no discernible net benefit for any of the scores at 2100 days.ConclusionORBIT-AF and ATRIA provided the best bleeding risk prediction within the first 1100 days. None of the 6 bleeding risk scores provided predictive benefit over 2100 days of DOAC treatment.

Project description:ObjectivesWe identified factors associated with thromboembolic and bleeding events in two contemporary cohorts of anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), treated with either vitamin K antagonists (VKA) or non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs).DesignProspective, multicentre observational study.Setting461 centres in seven European countries.Participants5310 patients receiving a VKA (PREvention oF thromboembolic events - European Registry in Atrial Fibrillation (PREFER in AF), derivation cohort) and 3156 patients receiving a NOAC (PREFER in AF Prolongation, validation cohort) for stroke prevention in AF.Outcome measuresRisk factors for thromboembolic events (ischaemic stroke, systemic embolism) and major bleeding (gastrointestinal bleeding, intracerebral haemorrhage and other life-threatening bleeding).ResultsThe mean age of patients enrolled in the PREFER in AF registry was 72±10 years, 40% were female and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc Score was 3.5±1.7. The incidence of thromboembolic and major bleeding events was 2.34% (95% CI 1.93% to 2.74%) and 2.84% (95% CI 2.41% to 3.33%) after 1-year of follow-up, respectively.Abnormal liver function, prior stroke or transient ischaemic attack, labile international normalised ratio (INR), concomitant therapy with antiplatelet or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, heart failure and older age (≥75 years) were independently associated with both thromboembolic and major bleeding events.With the exception of unstable INR values, these risk factors were validated in patients treated with NOACs (PREFER in AF Prolongation Study, 72±9 years, 40% female, CHA2DS2-VASc 3.3±1.6). For each single point decrease on a modifiable bleeding risk scale we observed a 30% lower risk for major bleeding events (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.76, p<0.01) and a 28% lower rate of thromboembolic events (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.82, p<0.01).ConclusionAttending to modifiable risk factors is an important treatment target in anticoagulated AF patients to reduce thromboembolic and bleeding events. Initiation of anticoagulation in those at risk of stroke should not be prevented by elevated bleeding risk scores.

Project description:ImportanceNew-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. However, the long-term risk of thromboembolism in patients who develop POAF after CABG surgery remains unknown. In addition, information on stroke prophylaxis in this setting is lacking.ObjectiveTo examine stroke prophylaxis and the long-term risk of thromboembolism in patients with new-onset POAF after first-time isolated CABG surgery compared with patients with nonsurgical, nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF).Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used data from a clinical cardiac surgery database and Danish nationwide registries to identify patients undergoing first-time isolated CABG surgery who developed new-onset POAF from January 1, 2000, through June 30, 2015. These patients were matched by age, sex, CHA2DS2-VASc score, and year of diagnosis to patients with nonsurgical NVAF in a 1 to 4 ratio. Data analysis was completed from February 2017 to January 2018.Main outcomes and measuresThe proportion of patients initiating oral anticoagulation therapy within 30 days and the rates of thromboembolism.ResultsA total of 2108 patients who developed POAF after CABG surgery were matched with 8432 patients with NVAF. In the full population of 10 540 patients, the median (interquartile range) age was 69.2 (63.7-74.7) years; 8675 patients (82.3%) were men. Oral anticoagulation therapy was initiated within 30 days postdischarge in 175 patients with POAF (8.4%) and 3549 patients with NVAF (42.9%). The risk of thromboembolism was lower in the POAF group than in the NVAF group (18.3 vs 29.7 events per 1000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.67; 95% CI, 0.55-0.81; P < .001). Anticoagulation therapy during follow-up was associated with a lower risk of thromboembolic events in both patients with POAF (adjusted HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.32-0.95; P = .03) and NVAF (adjusted HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.51-0.68; P < .001) compared with patients who did not receive any anticoagulation therapy. Further, the risk of thromboembolism was not significantly higher in patients with POAF compared with those who did not develop POAF after CABG surgery (adjusted HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.94-1.32; P < .24).Conclusions and relevanceNew-onset POAF in patients who had undergone CABG surgery was associated with a lower long-term thromboembolic risk than that of patients who had NVAF. These data do not support the notion that new-onset POAF should be regarded as equivalent to primary NVAF in terms of long-term thromboembolic risk.

Project description:BackgroundVarious scoring systems have been developed to assess the risk of bleeding in medical settings. HAS-BLED and HEMORR2HAGES risk scores are commonly used to estimate bleeding risk in patients receiving anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation, but data on their predictive value in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are limited.MethodsThis study evaluated and compared the predictive abilities of the HAS-BLED and HEMORR2HAGES bleeding risk scores in all-comer patients undergoing PCI. The PARIS score, specifically designed for patients undergoing PCI, was used as a comparator. The scores were calculated at baseline and compared with the occurrence of events during a 2-year clinical follow-up period. Between 2015 and 2017, all consecutive patients undergoing PCI we re prospectively enrolled and divided into risk tertiles based on bleeding risk scores. The primary end points were hierarchical major bleeding events, defined by Bleeding Academic Research Consortium types 3 through 5, and patient-oriented composite end points according to Bleeding Academic Research Consortium classification, which were assessed during the 2-year follow-up period.ResultsA total of 1,080 patients completed the follow-up period. Two years after index, 189 patients (17.5%) had experienced any bleeding, with 48 events (4.4%) classified as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium types 3 to 5. All bleeding risk scores showed statistically significant predictive ability for bleeding events. The HEMORR2HAGES score (C statistic, 0.73) was more effective than the HAS-BLED score (C statistic, 0.66; P = .07) and the PARIS score (C statistic, 0.66; P = .06) in predicting risk of major bleeding. Patients in high-risk bleeding groups also experienced a higher incidence of patient-oriented composite end points.ConclusionsThe HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED, and PARIS risk scores exhibited good predictive abilities for bleeding events following PCI. Patients at high risk of bleeding also demonstrated increased ischemic risk and higher mortality during the 2-year follow-up period.

Dataset Information

Predictive validation of existing bleeding and thromboembolic scores in elderly patients with comorbid atrial fibrillation and acute coronary syndrome.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predictive validation of existing bleeding and thromboembolic scores in elderly patients with comorbid atrial fibrillation and acute coronary syndrome.

Similar Datasets

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