Learning from the past: A short term forecast method for the COVID-19 incidence curve.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemy has created a radically new situation where most countries provide raw measurements of their daily incidence and disclose them in real time. This enables new machine learning forecast strategies where the prediction might no longer be based just on the past values of the current incidence curve, but could take advantage of observations in many countries. We present such a simple global machine learning procedure using all past daily incidence trend curves. Each of the 27,418 COVID-19 incidence trend curves in our database contains the values of 56 consecutive days extracted from observed incidence curves across 61 world regions and countries. Given a current incidence trend curve observed over the past four weeks, its forecast in the next four weeks is computed by matc

SUBMITTER: Morel JD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10317234 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature