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Safe and just Earth system boundaries.


ABSTRACT: The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1-3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

SUBMITTER: Rockstrom J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10322705 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Safe and just Earth system boundaries.

Rockström Johan J   Gupta Joyeeta J   Qin Dahe D   Lade Steven J SJ   Abrams Jesse F JF   Andersen Lauren S LS   Armstrong McKay David I DI   Bai Xuemei X   Bala Govindasamy G   Bunn Stuart E SE   Ciobanu Daniel D   DeClerck Fabrice F   Ebi Kristie K   Gifford Lauren L   Gordon Christopher C   Hasan Syezlin S   Kanie Norichika N   Lenton Timothy M TM   Loriani Sina S   Liverman Diana M DM   Mohamed Awaz A   Nakicenovic Nebojsa N   Obura David D   Ospina Daniel D   Prodani Klaudia K   Rammelt Crelis C   Sakschewski Boris B   Scholtens Joeri J   Stewart-Koster Ben B   Tharammal Thejna T   van Vuuren Detlef D   Verburg Peter H PH   Winkelmann Ricarda R   Zimm Caroline C   Bennett Elena M EM   Bringezu Stefan S   Broadgate Wendy W   Green Pamela A PA   Huang Lei L   Jacobson Lisa L   Ndehedehe Christopher C   Pedde Simona S   Rocha Juan J   Scheffer Marten M   Schulte-Uebbing Lena L   de Vries Wim W   Xiao Cunde C   Xu Chi C   Xu Xinwu X   Zafra-Calvo Noelia N   Zhang Xin X  

Nature 20230531 7968


The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked<sup>1-3</sup>, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently<sup>4,5</sup>. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability  ...[more]

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