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How to make climate-neutral aviation fly.

ABSTRACT: The European aviation sector must substantially reduce climate impacts to reach net-zero goals. This reduction, however, must not be limited to flight CO₂ emissions since such a narrow focus leaves up to 80% of climate impacts unaccounted for. Based on rigorous life-cycle assessment and a time-dependent quantification of non-CO₂ climate impacts, here we show that, from a technological standpoint, using electricity-based synthetic jet fuels and compensating climate impacts via direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) can enable climate-neutral aviation. However, with a continuous increase in air traffic, synthetic jet fuel produced with electricity from renewables would exert excessive pressure on economic and natural resources. Alternatively, compensating climate impacts of fossil jet fuel via DACCS would require massive CO₂ storage volumes and prolong dependence on fossil fuels. Here, we demonstrate that a European climate-neutral aviation will fly if air traffic is reduced to limit the scale of the climate impacts to mitigate.

SUBMITTER: Sacchi R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10326079 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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How to make climate-neutral aviation fly.

Sacchi Romain R Becattini Viola V Gabrielli Paolo P Cox Brian B Dirnaichner Alois A Bauer Christian C Mazzotti Marco M

Nature communications 20230706 1

The European aviation sector must substantially reduce climate impacts to reach net-zero goals. This reduction, however, must not be limited to flight CO<sub>2</sub> emissions since such a narrow focus leaves up to 80% of climate impacts unaccounted for. Based on rigorous life-cycle assessment and a time-dependent quantification of non-CO<sub>2</sub> climate impacts, here we show that, from a technological standpoint, using electricity-based synthetic jet fuels and compensating climate impacts v ...[more]

PMID: 37414843

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Project description:The European Green Deal (EGD) aims to transform the European Union (EU) into a climate neutral continent by 2050, requiring significant changes within carbon-intensive sectors. In this article, we examine EU Member States’ climate strategies in the aviation sector, where greenhouse gas emissions have doubled since 1990. We analyse EU National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) in order to examine national commitments on aviation. How frequently do EU Member States refer to aviation in their NECPs, and how can these references be understood thematically? First, by conducting a content analysis on all 54 draft and final NECPs, we identify how frequently 11 aviation-related terms were used. While all states increased the number of aviation references between their draft and final NECPs, Central and Eastern states showed the smallest increase. We show that Southern and Western Member States reference aviation most frequently in their final NECPs. Second, in our thematic analysis, we identify three key themes—‘contextual information’, ‘public policy’, and ‘fuels and propulsion’—that we divide into 17 sub-themes. Approximately half of the themes focused on contextual information, such as current aviation emissions, with the other half focusing on carbon reduction strategies, especially the EU Emissions Trading System, biofuels, and taxation. Western EU states provided the largest number of concrete policy statements on reducing aviation emissions and the promotion of biofuels. There were only two references to reducing the number of flights, across almost 7500 pages of climate documents. We conclude that the NECPs represent a promising means of conducting cross-country climate policy analysis, in order to compare efforts across economic sectors within Europe. With our analysis, we create a pre-pandemic sectoral baseline for aviation which can be used for further study. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s44168-022-00018-1.

Project description:Global aviation operations contribute to anthropogenic climate change via a complex set of processes that lead to a net surface warming. Of importance are aviation emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapor, soot and sulfate aerosols, and increased cloudiness due to contrail formation. Aviation grew strongly over the past decades (1960-2018) in terms of activity, with revenue passenger kilometers increasing from 109 to 8269 billion km yr-1, and in terms of climate change impacts, with CO2 emissions increasing by a factor of 6.8 to 1034 Tg CO2 yr-1. Over the period 2013-2018, the growth rates in both terms show a marked increase. Here, we present a new comprehensive and quantitative approach for evaluating aviation climate forcing terms. Both radiative forcing (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) terms and their sums are calculated for the years 2000-2018. Contrail cirrus, consisting of linear contrails and the cirrus cloudiness arising from them, yields the largest positive net (warming) ERF term followed by CO2 and NOx emissions. The formation and emission of sulfate aerosol yields a negative (cooling) term. The mean contrail cirrus ERF/RF ratio of 0.42 indicates that contrail cirrus is less effective in surface warming than other terms. For 2018 the net aviation ERF is +100.9 milliwatts (mW) m-2 (5-95% likelihood range of (55, 145)) with major contributions from contrail cirrus (57.4 mW m-2), CO2 (34.3 mW m-2), and NOx (17.5 mW m-2). Non-CO2 terms sum to yield a net positive (warming) ERF that accounts for more than half (66%) of the aviation net ERF in 2018. Using normalization to aviation fuel use, the contribution of global aviation in 2011 was calculated to be 3.5 (4.0, 3.4) % of the net anthropogenic ERF of 2290 (1130, 3330) mW m-2. Uncertainty distributions (5%, 95%) show that non-CO2 forcing terms contribute about 8 times more than CO2 to the uncertainty in the aviation net ERF in 2018. The best estimates of the ERFs from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions for soot and sulfate remain undetermined. CO2-warming-equivalent emissions based on global warming potentials (GWP* method) indicate that aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at approximately three times the rate of that associated with aviation CO2 emissions alone. CO2 and NOx aviation emissions and cloud effects remain a continued focus of anthropogenic climate change research and policy discussions.

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How to make climate-neutral aviation fly.

Publications

How to make climate-neutral aviation fly.

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