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The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom.

ABSTRACT: Beginning in May 2022, Mpox virus spread rapidly in high-income countries through close human-to-human contact primarily amongst communities of gay, bisexual and men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Behavioural change arising from increased knowledge and health warnings may have reduced the rate of transmission and modified Vaccinia-based vaccination is likely to be an effective longer-term intervention. We investigate the UK epidemic presenting 26-week projections using a stochastic discrete-population transmission model which includes GBMSM status, rate of formation of new sexual partnerships, and clique partitioning of the population. The Mpox cases peaked in mid-July; our analysis is that the decline was due to decreased transmission rate per infected individual and infection-induced immunity among GBMSM, especially those with the highest rate of new partners. Vaccination did not cause Mpox incidence to turn over, however, we predict that a rebound in cases due to behaviour reversion was prevented by high-risk group-targeted vaccination.

SUBMITTER: Brand SPC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10336136 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom.

Brand Samuel P C SPC Cavallaro Massimo M Cumming Fergus F Turner Charlie C Florence Isaac I Blomquist Paula P Hilton Joe J Guzman-Rincon Laura M LM House Thomas T Nokes D James DJ Keeling Matt J MJ

Nature communications 20230711 1

Beginning in May 2022, Mpox virus spread rapidly in high-income countries through close human-to-human contact primarily amongst communities of gay, bisexual and men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Behavioural change arising from increased knowledge and health warnings may have reduced the rate of transmission and modified Vaccinia-based vaccination is likely to be an effective longer-term intervention. We investigate the UK epidemic presenting 26-week projections using a stochastic discrete-popu ...[more]

PMID: 37433797

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Project description:BackgroundThe unprecedented global outbreak of mpox in 2022 posed a public health challenge. In addition to the mpox vaccine campaign in the United States (US), community organisations and public health agencies initiated educational efforts to promote sexual risk reduction. This modelling study estimated the impact of the two-dose vaccination campaign and sexual behaviour changes coincident with high-risk group awareness on the mpox epidemic in the US.MethodsWe fitted a deterministic, risk-structured SEIARV model to the epidemic curve of reported mpox cases in the US between May 22, 2022 and December 22, 2022. We evaluated the putative effects of the two preventive responses in the US -- vaccination and sexual risk reduction -- at the population-level, by calculating the prevention percentages of cumulative cases compared to the counterfactual scenario without interventions. We performed sensitivity analyses with four parameters: case reporting fidelity, vaccine effectiveness, proportion of asymptomatic cases, and assortative mixing.FindingsModel fitting revealed a basic reproduction number of 3.88 and 0.39 for the high-risk and low-risk populations, respectively, with 71.8% of mpox cases estimated from the high-risk population. A two-dose vaccination campaign, solely, could prevent 21.2% (10.2%-24.1%) of cases, while behaviour changes due to high-risk group awareness alone could prevent 15.4% (14.3%-20.6%). The combination of both measures were synergistic, with the model suggesting that 64.0% (43.8%-69.0%) of US cases were averted that would have otherwise occurred.InterpretationOur models suggest that the 2022-2023 mpox epidemic in the US was controlled by a combination of two-dose mpox vaccination campaign and high-risk group awareness and sexual risk reduction.FundingTaiwan Ministry of Education grant #NTU-112L9004, Taiwan National Science and Technology Council grant #MOST-109-2314-B-002-147-MY3 and grant #NSC-112-2314-B-002-216-MY3. SHV was supported, in part, by US National Institutes of Health grant #P30MH062294.

Project description:Bacterial resistance or tolerance to antibiotics is costly to patients and healthcare providers. With the impact of antibiotic resistance forecast to grow, alternative antimicrobial approaches are needed to help treat patients with antibiotic refractory infections and reduce reliance upon existing antibiotics. There is renewed interest in bacteriophage (phage) therapy as a promising antimicrobial strategy. We therefore performed the first multi-specialty survey about phage therapy and the first such survey among clinicians in the United Kingdom. An anonymous 10-question survey of clinicians from medical and surgical specialties in two Scottish Health Boards was performed. The 90 respondents spanned 26 specialties and were predominantly consultants (73.3%). The respondents were concerned about antibiotic resistance in their clinical practice; 83 respondents estimated having seen 711 patients in the last 12 months whose infections were refractory to antibiotics (delaying or preventing resolution). Over half (58.8%) of the respondents had previously heard of phage therapy. Staphylococci, Pseudomonas and E. coli were identified as the highest cross-specialty priorities for the development of phage therapy. Together, 77 respondents estimated seeing 300 patients in the last 12 months for whom phage therapy may have been appropriate (an average of 3.9 patients per clinician). Most respondents (71.1%, n = 90) were already willing to consider using phage therapy in appropriate cases. Additional comments from the respondents affirmed the potential utility of phage therapy and highlighted a need for more information. The results of this survey demonstrate substantial demand for and willingness to use phage therapy in appropriate cases, both from individual clinicians and across specialties. Demand from a wide range of specialties illustrates the broad clinical utility of phage therapy and potential scope of impact. Widening access to phage therapy could deliver substantial clinical and financial benefits for patients and health authorities alike.

Project description:BackgroundVaccination against herpes zoster was introduced in the United Kingdom in 2013 for individuals aged 70 years, with a phased catch-up campaign for 71-79 year olds. Vaccine introduction has resulted in a marked fall in incident herpes zoster and in post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), but formal evaluation of vaccine effectiveness is needed.MethodsIn a population-based cohort study of older individuals born between 1933 and 1946, we used linked UK anonymised primary care health records for the first three years of the vaccination programme (01/09/2013-31/08/2016) and multivariable Poisson regression to obtain incidence rates and vaccine effectiveness (VE) against zoster and PHN.ResultsAmong 516,547 individuals, 21% were vaccinated. Incidence of zoster was 3.15/1000 person-years in vaccinees and 8.80/1000 person-years in unvaccinated individuals. After adjustment, VE was 64% (95%CI = 60-68%) against incident zoster and 81% (95%CI = 61-91%) against PHN, with very similar VE estimates in the routine and catch-up cohorts. VE against zoster was lower in those with a previous history of zoster: 47% (95%CI = 31-58%) versus 64% (95%CI = 60-68%) in those without previous zoster. There was evidence of waning VE over time, from 69% (95%CI = 65-74%) in the first year after vaccination to 45% (95%CI = 29-57%) by the third year.ConclusionThis first formal assessment of VE in the UK zoster vaccination programme demonstrates good effectiveness of zoster vaccine, and very good protection against PHN. The findings provide evidence that VE is similar across the age groups targeted for vaccination in the UK, and on duration of protection of the vaccine in public health use. The study provides key information for decision-makers about the future direction of UK zoster vaccination programme, indicating that the live zoster vaccine may be more cost-effective than estimated previously. It also supports efforts to communicate the benefits of zoster vaccination to address the declining coverage observed across the UK.

Dataset Information

The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom.

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The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom.

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