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A test of the interpersonal theory of suicide in a large, representative, retrospective and prospective study: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

ABSTRACT: The interpersonal theory of suicide hypothesizes that perceived burdensomeness, thwarted belongingness, and hopelessness lead to active suicidal thoughts and individuals with active suicidal thoughts and elevated capability for suicide are most likely to attempt suicide. We retrospectively and prospectively tested this theory in a large sample of 7677 U.S. Army soldiers followed post-deployment for up to nine months. The interaction of perceived burdensomeness and hopelessness (OR = 2.59) was significantly associated with lifetime suicidal thoughts; however, the interactions of thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness and of thwarted belongingness and hopelessness were not. Consistent with the theory, capability for suicide prospectively predicted suicide attempts during and following deployment (OR = 1.22); however, among soldiers reporting lifetime suicidal thoughts, capability did not predict attempts, only perceived burdensomeness did (OR = 1.36). Results supported some, but not all, theory hypotheses, suggesting that additional constructs may be needed to better identify the psychological factors that lead soldiers to attempt suicide.

SUBMITTER: Chu C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10351027 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A test of the interpersonal theory of suicide in a large, representative, retrospective and prospective study: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

Chu Carol C Zuromski Kelly L KL Bernecker Samantha L SL Gutierrez Peter M PM Joiner Thomas E TE Liu Howard H Naifeh James A JA Stein Murray B MB Ursano Robert J RJ Nock Matthew K MK

Behaviour research and therapy 20200628

The interpersonal theory of suicide hypothesizes that perceived burdensomeness, thwarted belongingness, and hopelessness lead to active suicidal thoughts and individuals with active suicidal thoughts and elevated capability for suicide are most likely to attempt suicide. We retrospectively and prospectively tested this theory in a large sample of 7677 U.S. Army soldiers followed post-deployment for up to nine months. The interaction of perceived burdensomeness and hopelessness (OR = 2.59) was si ...[more]

PMID: 32731055

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Project description:ImportanceThe Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) is a multicomponent study designed to generate actionable recommendations to reduce Army suicides and increase knowledge of risk and resilience factors for suicidality.ObjectivesTo present data on prevalence, trends, and basic sociodemographic and Army experience correlates of suicides and accident deaths among active duty Regular Army soldiers between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2009, and thereby establish a foundation for future Army STARRS investigations.Design, setting, and participantsAnalysis of trends and predictors of suicide and accident deaths using Army and Department of Defense administrative data systems. Participants were all members of the US Regular Army serving at any time between 2004 and 2009.Main outcomes and measuresDeath by suicide or accident during active Army service.ResultsThe suicide rate rose between 2004 and 2009 among never deployed and currently and previously deployed Regular Army soldiers. The accident death rate fell sharply among currently deployed soldiers, remained constant among the previously deployed, and trended upward among the never deployed. Increased suicide risk was associated with being a man (or a woman during deployment), white race/ethnicity, junior enlisted rank, recent demotion, and current or previous deployment. Sociodemographic and Army experience predictors were generally similar for suicides and accident deaths. Time trends in these predictors and in the Army's increased use of accession waivers (which relaxed some qualifications for new soldiers) do not explain the rise in Army suicides.Conclusions and relevancePredictors of Army suicides were largely similar to those reported elsewhere for civilians, although some predictors distinct to Army service emerged that deserve more in-depth analysis. The existence of a time trend in suicide risk among never-deployed soldiers argues indirectly against the view that exposure to combat-related trauma is the exclusive cause of the increase in Army suicides.

Project description:ImportanceThe US Army experienced a sharp increase in soldier suicides beginning in 2004. Administrative data reveal that among those at highest risk are soldiers in the 12 months after inpatient treatment of a psychiatric disorder.ObjectiveTo develop an actuarial risk algorithm predicting suicide in the 12 months after US Army soldier inpatient treatment of a psychiatric disorder to target expanded posthospitalization care.Design, setting, and participantsThere were 53,769 hospitalizations of active duty soldiers from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2009, with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification psychiatric admission diagnoses. Administrative data available before hospital discharge abstracted from a wide range of data systems (sociodemographic, US Army career, criminal justice, and medical or pharmacy) were used to predict suicides in the subsequent 12 months using machine learning methods (regression trees and penalized regressions) designed to evaluate cross-validated linear, nonlinear, and interactive predictive associations.Main outcomes and measuresSuicides of soldiers hospitalized with psychiatric disorders in the 12 months after hospital discharge.ResultsSixty-eight soldiers died by suicide within 12 months of hospital discharge (12.0% of all US Army suicides), equivalent to 263.9 suicides per 100,000 person-years compared with 18.5 suicides per 100,000 person-years in the total US Army. The strongest predictors included sociodemographics (male sex [odds ratio (OR), 7.9; 95% CI, 1.9-32.6] and late age of enlistment [OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0-3.5]), criminal offenses (verbal violence [OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.0] and weapons possession [OR, 5.6; 95% CI, 1.7-18.3]), prior suicidality [OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.7-4.9], aspects of prior psychiatric inpatient and outpatient treatment (eg, number of antidepressant prescriptions filled in the past 12 months [OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7]), and disorders diagnosed during the focal hospitalizations (eg, nonaffective psychosis [OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.2-7.0]). A total of 52.9% of posthospitalization suicides occurred after the 5% of hospitalizations with highest predicted suicide risk (3824.1 suicides per 100,000 person-years). These highest-risk hospitalizations also accounted for significantly elevated proportions of several other adverse posthospitalization outcomes (unintentional injury deaths, suicide attempts, and subsequent hospitalizations).Conclusions and relevanceThe high concentration of risk of suicide and other adverse outcomes might justify targeting expanded posthospitalization interventions to soldiers classified as having highest posthospitalization suicide risk, although final determination requires careful consideration of intervention costs, comparative effectiveness, and possible adverse effects.

Project description:ImportanceThe Department of Veterans Affairs recently began requiring annual suicide ideation (SI) screening of all patients and additional structured questions for patients reporting SI. Related changes are under consideration at the Department of Defense. These changes will presumably lead to higher SI detection, which will require hiring additional clinical staff and/or developing a clinical decision support system to focus in-depth suicide risk assessments on patients considered high risk.ObjectiveTo carry out a proof-of-concept study for whether a brief structured question battery from a survey of US Army soldiers can help target in-depth suicide risk assessments by identifying soldiers with self-reported lifetime SI who are at highest risk of subsequent administratively recorded nonfatal suicide attempts (SAs).Design, setting, and participantsCohort study with prospective observational design. Data were collected from May 2011 to February 2013. Participants were followed up through December 2014. Analyses were conducted from March to November 2018. A logistic regression model was used to assess risk for subsequent administratively recorded nonfatal SAs. A total of 3649 Regular Army soldiers in 3 Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) surveys who reported lifetime SI were followed up for 18 to 45 months from baseline to assess administratively reported nonfatal SAs.Main outcomes and measuresOutcome was administratively recorded nonfatal SAs between survey response and December 2014. Predictors were survey variables.ResultsThe 3649 survey respondents were 80.5% male and had a median (interquartile range) age of 29 (25-36) years (range, 18-55 years); 69.4% were white non-Hispanic, 14.6% were black, 9.0% were Hispanic, 7.0% were another racial/ethnic group. Sixty-five respondents had administratively recorded nonfatal SAs between survey response and December 2014. One additional respondent died by suicide without making a nonfatal SA but was excluded from analysis based on previous evidence that predictors are different for suicide death and nonfatal SAs. Significant risk factors were SI recency (odds ratio [OR], 7.2; 95% CI, 2.9-18.0) and persistence (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.0-6.8), positive screens for mental disorders (OR, 26.2; 95% CI, 6.1-112.0), and Army career characteristics (OR for junior enlisted rank, 30.0; 95% CI, 3.3-272.5 and OR for senior enlisted rank, 6.7; 95% CI, 0.8-54.9). Cross-validated area under the curve was 0.78. The 10% of respondents with highest estimated risk accounted for 39.2% of subsequent SAs.Conclusions and relevanceResults suggest the feasibility of developing a clinically useful risk index for SA among soldiers with SI using a small number of self-report questions. If implemented, a continuous quality improvement approach should be taken to refine the structured question series.

Dataset Information

A test of the interpersonal theory of suicide in a large, representative, retrospective and prospective study: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

Publications

A test of the interpersonal theory of suicide in a large, representative, retrospective and prospective study: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

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