Predicting the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination in 112 countries from 2006 to 2034: A transmission modeling analysis.

ABSTRACT: Rotavirus vaccination has been shown to reduce rotavirus burden in many countries, but the long-term magnitude of vaccine impacts is unclear, particularly in low-income countries. We use a transmission model to estimate the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination on deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2006 to 2034 for 112 low- and middle-income countries. We also explore the predicted effectiveness of a one- vs two- dose series and the relative contribution of direct vs indirect effects to overall impacts. To validate the model, we compare predicted percent reductions in severe rotavirus cases with the percent reduction in rotavirus positivity among gastroenteritis hospital admissions for 10 countries with pre- and post-vaccine introduction data. We estimate that vacci

SUBMITTER: Kraay ANM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10351612 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature