Estimating generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Italy from the daily incidence rate.

ABSTRACT: The identification of the transmission parameters of a virus is fundamental to identify the optimal public health strategy. These parameters can present significant changes over time caused by genetic mutations or viral recombination, making their continuous monitoring fundamental. Here we present a method, suitable for this task, which uses as unique information the daily number of reported cases. The method is based on a time since infection model where transmission parameters are obtained by means of an efficient maximization procedure of the likelihood. Applying the method to SARS-CoV-2 data in Italy, we find an average generation time [Formula: see text] days, during the temporal window when the majority of infections can be attributed to the Omicron variants. At the same time we find

SUBMITTER: Lippiello E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10352265 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature